This is a follow-up analysis and an update of our prior report, “Chart alert: Dow Jones (DJIA) on the brink of major bearish breakdown below 200-day moving average at 46,330”, published on 13 March 2026.
The price actions of the US Wall Street 30 CFD index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) have tumbled as expected and broken below the key 200-day moving average on Wednesday, 18 March 2026.
On Monday, 23 March 2026, the US Wall Street 30 CFD index extended its bearish move to print an intraday low of 45,213 seen during the London session. All in all, it has plummeted by 10% from its current all-time high printed on 10 February 2026 to Monday’s 23 March 2026 low, reinforced by a flattening of the US Treasury yield curve triggered by rising stagflation risk due to global oil supply shock arising from the US-Iran war.
Risk-on behaviour roared back on Monday, 23 March 2026, after US President Trump sent a social media message that planned strikes against Iran’s energy infrastructure will be paused for five days as both sides are engaged in a renewed negotiation process, despite Iran’s repeated assertion that no direct negotiations have been held with the US.
The TACO regime, the popular acronym, “Trump Always Chickens Out,” has its footprints in the global financial markets yesterday, where market participants remembered the ex-post “Liberation Day” events in late April 2025, where Trump walked back on his aggressive tariffs and paused the US’s trade war 2.0 with China, inducing a V-shaped recovery in global stock markets.
Last year’s April “Liberation Day” TACO regime was a reaction to a sell-off in risk assets caused by “words” rather than actions, which are military strikes on stakeholders’ physical infrastructure in the current context, in turn, are likely to have lasting economic damages that cannot be easily reversed by a change of rhetoric from Trump.
Hence, Monday’s TACO-induced rally in risk assets is likely a fake head, also known as a dead cat bounce.
Intermarket analysis and technical analysis suggest that the medium-term V-shaped rally for the US stock market and global equities in general remains elusive now.
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