Crude oil and natural gas prices jumped on March 2 after Iran said it had closed the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns over energy supply in the Middle East.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz came after massive airstrikes by the U.S. and Israel, which reportedly killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
The Strait of Hormuz is widely viewed as the most critical chokepoint in global energy trade. About one-third of the world’s seaborne oil exports passed through the Strait in 2025, according to Kpler data cited by CNBC.
The closure would disrupt crude flows of millions of barrels per day, tighten global supply, and pressure oil prices.
Brent crude futures (BZ=F), the international benchmark, traded for under $70 last week. It moved up to roughly $77 on Monday afternoon, March 2.
Natural gas, though a different market than oil, reacted even more sharply.
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Gas prices jump as Qatar halts production
Both crude oil and natural gas are central to the conflict because of the Strait’s role in moving liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar.
Qatar is the world’s largest LNG exporter, and much of its output transits Hormuz. Bloomberg reported that Qatar halted LNG production after Iranian drone attacks on its Ras Laffan complex, which covers roughly 20% of global LNG supply.
The benchmark European gas price, traded on the Dutch TTF hub, jumped 39% to around €44 per megawatt-hour on March 2, the largest increase since August 2023.
Goldman Sachs warned gas prices could more than double
Goldman Sachs warned that the market had barely priced in geopolitical risk in gas prices before last week.
“While European gas (TTF) and spot LNG (JKM) prices have embedded little-to-no risk premium until this past Friday, we see significant upside risk to prices from a potential sustained disruption of LNG supply through the Strait of Hormuz,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note.
“In a scenario where flows halt for one month, we think it is likely that TTF and JKM could approach 74 EUR/MWh ($25/mmBtu) — 130% above current levels — a threshold that triggered large natural gas demand responses during the 2022 European energy crisis.”
Asian countries buy most of the LNG shipped from the Middle East, but a disruption might push up prices of alternative cargoes from the U.S. and Australia.
Goldman Sachs sees “limited upside risk to U.S. natural gas prices.” Still, several U.S. LNG exporter stocks rallied on Monday, March 2.
Shares of Cheniere Energy (LNG) rose 5.6%. Venture Global (VG) jumped 17.4%, and NextDecade (NEXT) gained 4%.
Front-month Nymex gas for April delivery was up 4% at $2.97 per MMBtu.
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