Fresh US investigation threatens SA’s access to key markets

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JEREMY MAGGS: Washington has put South Africa in its sights again as the United States opens something called a Section 301 investigation into whether countries, including this one, are doing enough to block imports made with forced labour.

A move that could sharpen trade tensions and potentially open the door to more tariffs and other restrictions. The probe, as I understand it, was initiated by US Trade Representative (Jamieson Greer).

Steven Gruzd is the head of African Governance and Diplomacy programme at the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA). So let’s wade into this with a little bit more detail.

Steven, welcome to you. What exactly is South Africa being accused of?

STEVEN GRUZD: Well, South Africa is among 60 countries that are being investigated by the US Trade Representative for alleged child labour and use of products that have come from child labour into our market, amongst other, what the US calls unfair trade practices.

To me, it sounds like an opportunity to find reasons not to import goods from South Africa.

On top of, as you’ve said, quite a strict tariff regime, South Africa is receiving some of the highest tariffs of any country in the world.

Donald Trump seems to have this notion that all his trade partners are getting the better of him, so (the US) is trying to find reasons to impose more restrictions.

JEREMY MAGGS: So not really about forced labour at all. It’s a wider trade and geopolitical pressure tactic.

STEVEN GRUZD: That’s what I see it as. Child labour or underage labour or illegal labour has not really been a big issue in South Africa. So it seems to be a smokescreen or an opportunity for looking at other measures that are considered unfair.

JEREMY MAGGS: Nonetheless, Steven, it is going ahead. So how serious would an investigation like this be in practical terms for South Africa?

STEVEN GRUZD: Well, it depends on what it unearths. I think that they’re going to look hard for what they’re looking for. It’s not going to put us in a great position with the US.

As we know, the relationship has been fraying. It’s been difficult. We’ve had the expulsion of our ambassador (Ebrahim Rasool). We’ve had the new American ambassador (Leo Brent Bozell) here already démarched.

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We’ve had the US boycotting the G20 that South Africa hosted last year. We’ve had South Africa not being invited to the G20 this year, and a number of other indicators that show that the relationship is not in a good position.

Listen/read: Belligerent Trump bars SA from US G20 in 2026

This would just be another log on the fire in the rather poor and tattered relationship that we have with the most important economy in the world. I don’t think it’s good news.

JEREMY MAGGS: So those sectors that are maybe standing around this fire, which of those should be most concerned, do you think?

STEVEN GRUZD: Well, I think it’s the same sectors that are getting benefit from getting into the American market through Agoa, the African Growth and Opportunity Act. At one point they were saying South Africa may be excluded. That may still happen. But that arrangement has been extended until the end of the year.

Listen/read: Agoa extended – and SA is included

The sectors there are the motor industry, the wine industry and the fresh fruit and agriculture industry, all of which have preferential access into the US market through Agoa, and all of which have been affected by these moves on the trade front.

JEREMY MAGGS: Is it likely then and maybe just explain this in simple terms, will this then spill over into Agoa and broader market access then for our exports?

STEVEN GRUZD: Well, I’m not a trade expert, but I think it will. I think it will have a chilling effect and make it more difficult to get goods into the US market.

Maybe that’s a good thing, because South Africa will diversify and look for other markets as it has been. It’s been talking to China for a long time.

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China has granted a whole lot of goods duty free, quota free into its market, but it’s not so easy to switch markets. I just don’t think it’s good news for South Africa, and it’s going to put those and other industries under a lot of pressure.

JEREMY MAGGS: Tell me, Steven, is there a pre-emptive strategy then, that Pretoria could adopt, before the April submission deadline?

STEVEN GRUZD: We’ve been told that Pretoria has been trying to secure some kind of trade deal with the US since April last year, and that has not been successful. We know that the US has forged new deals with the European Union, the UK and others.

I think we’re just not a priority for Washington at all, and I’m very far down the list, so I don’t know exactly what we could do pre-emptively, short of trying to find some kind of deal.

It also doesn’t help that we haven’t had an ambassador in the United States since Ebrahim Rasool was declared persona non grata and kicked out of the country. I think it was in January or February 2025.

Listen: Rasool’s boot from the USA: Did the ambassador overstep diplomatic boundaries?

So it’s been a whole year without having our top diplomat in the United States and that’s a problem.

JEREMY MAGGS: Do you think, bluntly, we’re wasting our time here with this mollifying tactic of trying to secure some kind of deal, and that the reality is, as long as the Trump administration and whatever follows continues, that door is now firmly shut and locked.

STEVEN GRUZD: I don’t think we should give up.

I think we have to try whatever we can to mend this relationship, to secure markets for our goods and so on. You can’t give up on the most powerful country.

But boy, it’s going to be difficult in the next three years, as the rest of the Trump administration plays out. I don’t think we should have any illusions.

JEREMY MAGGS: And mending that relationship, Steven, and we’re moving slightly away here from trade, but it would also mean Pretoria maybe dialling down the rhetoric a little bit.

STEVEN GRUZD: Well, that’s what the US definitely would like to see. South Africa has remained defiant on things like the case against Israel at the International Court of Justice. It says this is a principle about international law and it won’t back down.

That’s one of the things that Ambassador Bozell, the new American ambassador, has wanted South Africa to do.

So it’s difficult to see how this is going to play out.

But I do think having ambassadors in each other’s capitals is really important and we’ve suffered from not having that for a year on both sides.

JEREMY MAGGS: If South Africa mishandled this, and again, the deadline is very close, is there an immediate realistic economic downside, do you think?

STEVEN GRUZD: I don’t know if immediate, but in the medium term, definitely. If the US is then determined that we have unfair trade practices, it can take a whole number of measures, including stopping imports, that will just really damage the economy.

There are some who say, oh, we don’t need America and they’ve got a right-wing president in the White House, and we must do our own thing, and we must look to Brics (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa).

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It’s not so easy, especially with the historical relationship we’ve had with the US and the size of the imports that go into the United States from South Africa.

JEREMY MAGGS: To that end, this this is more than a warning shot. It’s the start of what is obviously a much tougher US line on South Africa. What might come next, do you think?

STEVEN GRUZD: Well, we’ve heard in Congress for maybe the last couple of years, I suppose, that there is legislation slowly making its way through, requiring a full review of the US’s relationship with South Africa in all aspects.

Read: Trump’s tariffs have gutted Agoa’s duty‑free promise

If that goes through and that investigation comes up and says, well, South Africa is not acting in the US interest, again, I think that could tear the relationship even further apart and make any kind of reset just that much more difficult.

JEREMY MAGGS: Steven Gruzd, thank you very much indeed, head of the African Governance and Diplomacy programme at the South African Institute of International Affairs.