US President Donald Trump’s hopes for a quick war with Iran are fading by the day.
The Strait of Hormuz – which accounts for 20% of the world’s seaborne oil trade – remains shut to all but a few ships, driving Brent crude prices to around $95-$100 a barrel.
Around the world, inflation targets are being recalibrated to account for this oil price shock. Currencies are in turmoil, losing up to 6% against the USD in a matter of days.
Despite global calls for a ceasefire, neither Israel and the US nor Iran appear ready to take that step. There is a danger this could develop into a wider conflict, meaning oil prices will remain high for longer – and perhaps go even higher.
| Currency | Country | % change against USD |
| ZAR (rand) | South Africa | 6% |
| INR (rupee) | India | 1-2% |
| BRL (real) | Brazil | 4% |
| TRY (lira) | Turkey | 5% |
| MXN (peso) | Mexico | 3% |
| KRW (won) | South Korea | 4% |
The ZAR came within a whisker of R17/$ last week, having powered its way to R15.84 in February.
All the gains of the last 12 months are now at risk of being undone.
“What we have seen in the Middle East in the last two weeks demonstrates that events can quickly turn for the worse,” says Faadil Moti, CEO of 80eight, a licensed Treasury outsourced company (TOC) and financial services provider (FSP).
“South Africans are going to notice the damage caused by this war, first at the fuel pump, and then in the follow-on price increases in groceries and other consumables. We can’t predict the rand exchange rate, but these latest events show the necessity of being prepared for unexpected shocks.”
Where are the opportunities?
There is a flight from risk, which explains the sudden weakening in the ZAR, explains Moti.
“This war shows the importance of diversifying internationally. Investors are rushing back into USD on a massive scale.
“The mass sell-off in global financial markets has made assets cheaper. That’s a huge opportunity. The sell-off may deepen, but astute investors are starting to build up positions at these prices.”
Doubling of individual forex allowances
There was some good news in the 2026 Budget – the doubling of the Single Discretionary Allowance (SDA) from R1 million to R2 million per calendar year (effective immediately via authorised dealers, as confirmed in recent South African Reserve Bank exchange control circulars).
“We are awaiting full regulatory clarity where needed – but once fully implemented, this means South Africans can acquire roughly $120 000 a year [based on current rates] instead of the previous $60 000,” says Moti.
“And there’s a lot that can be done with this.”
This SDA is an allowance available to all South Africans (aged 18 and above) that enables them to acquire foreign currency without South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) permission for the purpose of travel, gifts, remittances, investments, and donations.
Every South African gets the R2 million SDA annually (once regulations are fully in effect), plus an additional R10 million Foreign Investment Allowance provided they receive South African Revenue Service (Sars) tax clearance.
How to take advantage of the new forex allowance
80eight smooths the process of applying for these forex allowances by handling the approvals for you – at no cost.
The additional SDA is an excellent time to diversify into offshore assets like Amazon, Microsoft, Tesla stocks, or international ETFs (exchange-traded funds) unavailable locally. If you already hold offshore positions, consider topping up to capture potential ZAR gains, says Moti.
The ZAR-USD exchange rate may have weakened over the last two weeks, but it’s still far cheaper than a year ago when it traded above R18/$.
“That means you get more USD for your rands. But as we continually remind our customers, history is not in favour of the ZAR. Over the longer term it has depreciated massively against the USD. In other words, don’t count on the ZAR remaining strong forever,” says Moti.
“A second reason to buy USD is to hedge against future uncertainty. We’ve already seen the ZAR start to weaken somewhat against the USD, and the rand is famously volatile. That volatility has spiked in the last two weeks. This is a good time to lock in rates and protect against future surprises.”
One of the risks is imported inflation – a reality that was slammed home in the last week with oil prices surging amid Hormuz disruptions.
The USD offers some protection against market uncertainties. For importers, this is an opportunity to build USD reserves or lock in good rates during periods of relative ZAR strength.
“You can’t predict the future, so capitalise on opportunities when they appear, especially now,” says Moti.
Zero SWIFT fees for three months
80eight is offering customers zero SWIFT fees on international transfers for a period of three months. This is a significant saving, particularly for those doing regular transfers.
Up to 50% lower fees than the banks
Another benefit of dealing through 80eight is that it undercuts traditional bank fees on global transfers by up to 50%. Moti says the company does this by bulking transactions to get superior rates, backed by some fancy technology that automates much of the back office grunt work.
80eight clients are allocated forex experts – real humans who understand your business and forex needs, rather than impersonal chatbots or a daisy chain of call centre staff.
Financing and global networks for SMEs
80eight offers SME financing to fuel trade and expansion, plus access to a network of over 30 000 trusted international businesses across the Middle East, Asia, and Europe – opening new suppliers and markets.
By eliminating SWIFT fees for the next three months, slashing spreads permanently, providing financing, and connecting clients globally, 80eight makes cross-border payments and trade more affordable and accessible for South Africans.
All of this is now available on the 80eight app.
80eight operates as a licensed Treasury Outsourced Company (TOC) and an authorised financial services provider (FSP 49010) in South Africa. This ensures compliance and transparency for all clients. Beyond payments, 80eight’s ecosystem includes crypto trading, investment tools, wallet infrastructure, and lending for SMEs – all accessible through the 80eight app.
Brought to you by 80eight.
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