So, is California’s unemployment market slogging along or flopping into a quagmire of job cuts?
My trusty spreadsheet compared two federal government’s job counts: Unemployment insurance claims – a snapshot of who’s newly out of work and eligible for those benefits – vs. layoffs and discharges – a tally of the speed at which bosses are trimming staff.
Unfortunately, this employment data only amplifies the economic mystery, both statewide and nationally. And these kinds of mixed messages help depress consumer confidence.
Let’s begin with California’s new jobless claims. During the 12 months ended in February, they ran 1% below the previous 12-month period.
That’s the 22nd-best performance among the states and tops the nation’s 0.3% dip.
Claims fell in 24 states, topped by Wisconsin’s 16% dip, Indiana’s 14%, and Massachusetts and Arizona, off 13%. The biggest jumps were seen in Kentucky at 32%, the District of Columbia at 26%, Virginia at 24% and Delaware at 21%
Different picture
Layoff statistics paint a somewhat different, and disappointing, employment picture. It’s certainly a worrisome trend to watch carefully.
Note that the tracking of “involuntary separations” includes employees who are ineligible for unemployment insurance or who delay filing for various reasons, including severance pay. Don’t forget, some workers find new jobs before requesting jobless aid.
Also, consider that unemployment claims are actual counts of benefit requests by state employment bureaus. The layoff counts are estimates taken from employer surveys.
Plus, these numbers don’t come out as quickly. So, the latest stats are for December.
Caveats noted, California’s involuntary separations for all of 2025 were up 18% vs. 2024. Sadly, this was the seventh-best performance among the states. U.S. layoffs grew 21% and increased in every state.
Layoffs grew fastest in Rhode Island (33%), Kentucky (29%), and New Jersey and Tennessee (27%). The smallest job-cut increases were in New York (15%), Connecticut (16%), New Hampshire (17%), and Pennsylvania (17%).
If nothing else, surging layoffs are not good for the economic psyche, as workers fear both “Who’s next?” and “Can I avoid lengthy unemployment if I’m let go?”
Good ol’ days
Look at these employment swings compared to what was seen between 2015 and 1019, the pre-pandemic years considered by some to be the good ol’ days.
The recent pace of unemployment claims in California was 3% below the 2015-19 pace, ranking 13th-smallest among the states. Nationwide, claims were down 9% in this period.
Among the 40 states with declining claims from 2015-19, the largest declines were in Alaska (56%), Delaware (49%), Kansas (42%), and Wisconsin (39%). The biggest surges in claims were in D.C., up 148%, Colorado, up 32%, Minnesota, up 25%, and Utah, up 22%.
Even the layoff jump seems modest looking back to 2015-19.
California cuts are only 6% higher, ranking 14th highest among the states. Nationally, layoffs are off 4% from 2015-19.
Job cuts are down in 31 states from pre-pandemic levels, led by Pennsylvania, down 27%; Alaska, down 21%; and Missouri and Louisiana, down 20%. Biggest gains? Idaho (50%), Nevada (41%), Rhode Island (31%) and Connecticut (23%).
However, economic history won’t easily soothe the nerves of workers who feel tenuous job security in early 2026,
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com
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