While catching up on today’s real estate news to kick off the first business day of March 2026, I stumbled across a statistic that, to a casual observer, might look like just another data point.
But having tracked the ebb and flow of mortgage rates and homebuyer trends for several years now as a reporter for TheStreet, this one seemed significant.
“For the first time in five years, more U.S. homeowners have a mortgage rate above 6% than a rate below 3%,” real estate technology company Redfin wrote.
“More than one in five (21.2%) mortgaged U.S. homeowners had a 6%-plus rate in the third quarter (of 2025), up from 17.1% a year earlier and the highest share since 2015,” Redfin continued. “A slightly lower share (20%) of mortgaged homeowners have a rate under 3%, the smallest share since the end of 2021.”
In fact, that was the second quarter in a row that homeowners with 6% rates outnumbered those with 3%-or-lower rates.
Number of homeowners with mortgage rates above 6% rises
- During the second quarter of 2025, the share of homeowners with mortgage rates above 6% reached 20.3%, officially edging out the 20.2% who still hold rates under 3%.
- This shift represents a significant reversal of the trends seen during the pandemic and its immediate aftermath, when ultra-low rates dominated the housing landscape.
- The last time high-rate mortgages outnumbered these sub-3% loans was the third quarter of 2020, a period when rates were actively plummeting toward historic lows.
(Source:Redfin)
TheStreet
Mortgage rates back above 6%
On Feb. 26, Freddie Mac had reported that the 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 5.98%.
“For the first time in three and a half years, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped into the 5% range, falling even lower than last week’s milestone,” wrote Freddie Mac. “This rate, combined with the improving availability of homes for sale, is meaningful and will drive more potential buyers into the market for spring homebuying season.”
By March 2, Mortgage News Daily (MND) was reporting a move back above 6%.
“Mortgage rates began the new week with a fairly quick jump back into the low 6% range (top tier 30yr fixed rate for the average lender),” wrote Matthew Graham, chief operating officer for MND. “With the news cycle very focused on developments in Iran, most coverage attempts to correlate geopolitical events with market movement.”
Related: Zillow forecasts new 2026 change in housing market, real estate
One could reasonably argue that surging energy costs are fueling inflation expectations and pushing rates upward, Graham explained. This has frequently been the case in past market cycles, though it currently serves as only a minor factor in today’s overall market weakness.
“But most of the big, directional moves in oil prices over the past 2 days have failed to correlated with big moves in the bond market,” wrote Graham. “Even when we zoom out to wider frames of reference, we see counterintuitive developments over the past several years.”
“When oil peaked around $120/bbl in 2022, 10yr Treasury yields were around 3%. When oil fell sharply into 2023, bond yields continued moving up and have held flat for the last few years even as oil gently declined.”
More on mortgages, housing market:
- Zillow sounds alarm mortgage rates, housing market
- Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices predicts housing market pivot
- Redfin sends strong message on mortgage rates
Graham conceded that there are signs of correlation where the two factors share similar trends.
“The only problem with that is that oil and rates can both respond to a third variable: economic strength,” Graham wrote.
“On that note, this week’s economic data may be just as big of an influence on rate momentum while geopolitical developments represent a wild card that can create a backdrop of volatility.”
Zillow notes mortgage rate trend may be positive sign for homebuyers
Real estate technology company Zillow had suggested on Feb. 26 that the mortgage rate movement below 6% reported by Freddie Mac that day might have provided homebuyers with a psychological boost.
“As we noted six weeks ago, this early shift lower isn’t necessarily a surprise, Zillow chief economist Mischa Fisher had written. “I also think there could be a nonlinear effect on volume. Psychologically, humans love round numbers, and today’s headlines could prompt many to take another peek at what they can afford.”
Zillow highlights $30,000 increase in homebuyer power
- According to a recent analysis from Zillow’s Kara Ng, the typical household has seen a $30,000 boost in purchasing power over the last twelve months, which may allow this year’s buyers to prioritize their preferences rather than simply settling for what’s available.
- Zillow anticipates that this upward trend in affordability will persist throughout 2026, further expanding the options available to those currently in the market.
- For real estate professionals, this shift presents a prime opportunity to reconnect with sidelined clients, Zillow explained.
- While home prices haven’t dropped significantly, the notable improvement in monthly mortgage payments has created a much more favorable environment for a second look.
(Source:Zillow)
Related: Zillow predicts big mortgage rate shift, homebuyer activity
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