The week ahead: Big banks results and SA GDP numbers

It will be a busy week on the local listed-company front, with two sets of annual results coming out and five companies releasing their interim figures.

Local banks headline the calendar, with full-year results from:

• Absa Group (Tuesday): In a trading update, the group guided for mid-single-digit revenue growth for 2025, with an improved credit loss ratio (CLR) in the upper half of its 75 to 100-basis points (bps) through-the-cycle target range and headline earnings per share (EPS) growth in the low-double digits. Management expects return on equity (ROE) of around 15% for 2025 and approximately 16% for 2026.
• Standard Bank Group (Tuesday):In a trading update, the group indicated that performance trends in the 10 months to 31 October 2025 were broadly in line with 1H25, with banking revenue growing by mid to high single digits and the CLR around the middle of its 70 to 100bps through-the-cycle range. Management reaffirmed FY25 guidance for mid to high single-digit banking revenue growth, with banking revenue growth at or above operating expenses growth, and group ROE anchored in the 17% to 20% target range. The group’s results will also be out on Tuesday.

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Half-year results

•  AVI (Monday): In a trading statement for the six months ended 31 December 2025, the group indicated revenue of R8.9 billion, up 4.9%, supported by volume growth and higher selling prices to offset inflationary pressures. Management expects consolidated headline EPS to increase by between 10.5% and 12.5% to a range of 450.3 to 458.4 cents.
• Hyprop Investments (Tuesday): In a trading update, the South African real estate investment trust (Reit) indicated that tenants turnover grew 5% to R15.5 billion across its SA portfolio for the six months ended 31 December 2025, while its Eastern European centres posted turnover growth of 3.8% to €349.7 million.
• Growthpoint Properties (Wednesday): In its 1Q26 trading update, the company reported improved portfolio metrics with vacancies declining to 7.4% (the lowest since June 2019), while disposing of eight non-core assets for R391.6 million and incurring R249.2 million in development expenditure. Management reaffirmed FY26 guidance of 3% to 5% growth in distributable income per share and 6% to 8% dividend per share growth, based on an 87.5% payout ratio.
• Attacq (Wednesday): Releasing its FY25 results, the group reported distributable income of R758.4 million, with investment property valued at R21.6 billion following positive fair value adjustments of R935 million. The board declared a final dividend of 43 cents per share, bringing total FY25 distributions to 87 cents per share.

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• Harmony Gold (Wednesday): Per a trading update for 1H26, the company indicated a solid financial performance supported by elevated gold prices and strong free cash flow generation, despite operational challenges from a mill motor failure at Hidden Valley and lower metallurgical recoveries due to an industry-wide cyanide shortage in South Africa.

On the economic front …

There has been a lot of talk about the upswing in momentum for the country’s economy, which by most accounts has entered a constructive growth phase.

The positive sentiment about the domestic economy has been underpinned by several encouraging developments in the past few months, including:

• South Africa’s removal from the Financial Action Task Force grey list and the European Union’s list of high-risk third-country jurisdictions;
• Continued fiscal consolidation;
• The adoption of a lower inflation target;
• A one-notch sovereign credit rating upgrade by S&P Global Ratings;
• Ongoing structural reforms;
• A relatively stronger rand; and
• The commodity boom.

However good this combination sounds, it has been up against heightened global uncertainty and ongoing growth challenges.

GDP data

The big question this week will be whether the economy can maintain its uninterrupted growth spurt, with all eyes on the release of GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2025 on Tuesday.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the economy saw a modest 0.5% quarter-on-quarter expansion in the third quarter of 2025. This was slower than the revised 0.9% growth seen in Q2 but better than the marginal 0.1% in Q1.

Growth in the three months to end September was broad-based, with mining; trade, catering and accommodation; finance; real estate; and business services among industries that kept the lights on.

The only sector to record a contraction was electricity, gas and water.

Stellenbosch-based Bureau of Economic Research and some other forecasters expect a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.3%, with full-year growth projected at 1.3% year on year.

Current account data

Thursday will see the release of South Africa’s account data for the fouth quarter of 2025.

In the previous quarter, the current account deficit narrowed to R57 billion from R72.2 billion in the second quarter. As a share of GDP, the deficit improved to -0.7% from -1%.

This outcome reflected a smaller surplus on trade in goods and services. Export volumes fell, while import growth was largely driven by higher prices.

Also due out on Thursday – mining production and manufacturing data for January.