War begins, Wall Street unfazed (for now!) – Dow Jones and US Stocks outlook

• US Stock Benchmarks gapped lower at the open but have bounced higher significantly since
• Investor sentiment remains elevated despite the new beginning of a rough conflict in the Middle East
• Exploring Technical Levels for the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and S&P 500

Stock Markets have eased significantly during the Asian and European sessions, but it seems that US Markets are remaining unfazed.

Gapping lower by 1.50% across all benchmarks, Stocks are now rallying back, now close to unchanged, and essentially filling the gaps.

J.P. Morgan issued a buy-the-dips recommendation, which undoubtedly helped risk sentiment ease, but US stocks remain at key inflection points.

What is surprising is also seeing US Treasuries sell off (10Y Yield back above 4.00%) despite ongoing intense exchanges in the Middle East – Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies are also exploding higher as we speak.

Markets were trading at the lows of their ranges, which could also have helped the rebound.

I invite you to check out Morning reactions and a detailed resume of the events right here.

Keep a close eye on sentiment throughout the week, as economic damage from the war is still far from reflected. The Strait of Hormuz and a potential closure there could be hurting sentiment more consistently throughout the week.

Let’s explore the key levels for weekly action by diving into today’s session charts and key trading levels for the major US indices: the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500.

Read More:

• A look around Markets as Iran operations begin – Market reactions
• Markets Today: Chaos as Middle East conflict widens, natural gas jumps 22%, DXY at five-week highs & FTSE 100 retreats
• Safe-haven demand intensifies as US-Iran conflict extends – Gold, WTI Crude, Nikkei 225, AUD/USD short-term outlook

Despite the rebound around US Benchmarks, individual equities are sending a mixed picture.

Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta and Energy stocks are dominating the action.

Dow Jones rebounded significantly from its 48,103 overnight futures lows, and is now facing a significant test at its Gap-fill level and 50-Hour MA (48,925 – Morning Highs).

• Closing above on the session would imply a buy-the-dip flows over War flows – Odds for this could be compromised if news worsen.
• Rejecting the 50-Hour MA (immediate test) could lead to further downside in US Indexes – Doing so could see a test of the overnight lows.

Dow Jones technical levels for trading:

Resistance Levels

• Key 1H MA 48,925 – Current rejection & Morning highs
• 200-Hour MA 49,270
• January ATH Resistance 49,500 to 49,700
• 49,900 to 50,000 Resistance (Range Highs)
• Index All-Time highs 50,512

Support Levels

• Past week Support 48,660 to 48,740 (Friday lows)
• November ATH 48,300 to 48,500 Minor Support
• Overnight futures lows 48,103
• Key Support from 47,500 to 48,000 (Next main Support)
• 45,000 psychological level (Main Support on higher timeframe)

Nasdaq breached back above its 50-Hour MA but is less responsive than the DJIA to the indicator.

The level to watch is being tested as we speak: 25,000.

• Closing above on the session would see further dip-buying, like in the DJIA.
• Rejecting here however could see a quick test of the 24,441 overnight lows.

Nasdaq technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Key Pivot 25,000 to 25,250 (Immediate rejection!)
• 25,400 to 25,500 Intraday resistance
• All-time high resistance zone 26,100 to 26,300

Support Levels

• Mini-intraday support 24,744 (bearish below)
• 24,400 to 25,600 Key Support (Range Support)
• 24,441 Overnight lows
• February Support 24,150 to 24,200
• October – November Support 23,800 to 24,000
• Early 2025 ATH at 22,000 to 22,229 Support

The S&P 500 is facing almost similar conditions as the Dow. After running higher in the morning session, bulls will be facing a key test at the 200-Hour MA (6,874).

• Trading and closing above would point to 7,000.
• Below would point to a test of the 6,760 overnight lows.

S&P 500 technical levels of interest:

Resistance Levels

• Morning highs and 200-Hour MA (6,874)
• Key Pivot Zone 6,880 to 6,900
• Previous ATH minor Resistance 6,945 to 6,975
• Current ATH 7,020
• All-time High Resistance 7,000 to 7,020 (range highs)

Support Levels

• Mini-Support 6,830 to 6,850
• 6,800 Psychological Support
• Overnight lows 6,760
• February lows 6,730 (Higher timeframe range lows)
• 6,400 Major psychological support

Safe Trades and keep a close eye on the US-Iran developments!

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