A new, still muted catalyst did start to show its fangs with Private Credit facing threats, outflows, and failures as economists project that we are nearing the peak of the economic cycle. This remains one of the most essential factors to monitor for future Stock Market investing.
About tensions in the Middle East, the US and Israel declared war against the Islamic Republic of Iran, after 47 years of tensions between the two sides.
Ever since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, the Iranian regime pledged “Death to the USA, Death to Israel”; as revolts began in December 2025, a much-weakened approval for the strict regime led to brutal repressions, marking +30,000 casualties among the Iranian population.
Coinciding with the IRGC reaching alerting levels of Uranium enrichment, in the objective to develop Nuclear weapons, and a promise to defend the Iranian population, the US and Israel commenced a striking operation against military and regime targets in Iran.
Iran riposted against Israel, US positions, but also numerous Gulf countries all over the Middle East – Oil has since bounced about 10% – 15%, as supply fears grip the commodity’s price.
What happens to the Strait of Hormuz and the evolution of WTI/Brent prices remains a angst factor for Markets.
Nevertheless, ongoing operations in the Middle East have been announced to be advancing well, taking some of the fear out of a prolonged war and helping Market sentiment – the US and Canadian Dollars have exploded to new highs since the beginning of the conflict.
On the sidenote, the Beige Book just got published, with the Fed expressing an increased pace of economic activity – It wouldn’t be surprising to see rate cuts delayed further with the latest round of data.
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