The Iran conflict threatens to enter its third week as bombings, drone strikes, and a shutdown of critical shipping corridors and industry continue. And with no end in sight, the regional war’s global implications are starting to be measured in markets.
In recent days, we’ve covered some of the more pressing market stories amid promises that the conflict will be over in “four to five weeks.” But as key shipping corridors and industry remain shut in the Middle East, investors are starting to position for a prolonged conflict in the region.
- As Iran war is declared “very complete,” it continues with asterisks
- Goldman Sachs resets oil price target for rest of 2026
- Iran’s shocking threat to boost oil to $200
- Is the Middle East conflict the start of an AI “black swan” event?
The result so far has been higher energy prices — U.S. WTI Crude surpassed $97 on Friday — and rising worries about the possible impacts to global food security, manufacturing, and chipmaking if the conflict were to live past the five-week shelf life laid out by President Donald Trump.
There’s also been repricing in stocks, which makes sense because geopolitical uncertainty and conflict are bad for business. To dig in, we took a look at the S&P 500 for a temperature check. The index’s top and bottom 20 stocks over the last month offer some generalizations about the happenings on the ground floor of the market.
What’s up?
Some of this might not come as a surprise, but stocks attached to industries ensnared in the Middle East conflict have seen the most marked increase in their stock over the last month.
Fertilizer companies
Fertilizer maker CF Industries Holdings has been the index’s best performing stock, up 34%. In a previous story, we covered how a sizable portion of ingredients found in nitrogen fertilizers are found in the Middle East. With shipping lanes still shut, fertilizer prices stand to skyrocket just before Spring plant. Another chemical company, LyondellBasell Industries NV (#6, +23%), is also rising in sympathy.
Related: It’s not just rising oil prices you’ll have to worry about if Iran conflict continues
Energy names
Then, there’s the oil companies. The index’s second best-performer, Texas Pacific Land Corporation, counts over half of its revenue from oil & gas revenues. It has jumped nearly 29% over the last months thanks to the pop in oil prices.
The bump in energy prices is also helping the industry’s stocks, with the S&P Energy Sector rising over 6.5% over the past month. Occidental Petroleum Corp (#5), APA Corporation (#7), Valero Energy (#14), EOG Resources (#19), and EQT Corp (#20) fill out the majority of the list.
But absent the Iran conflict, there are some other interesting stories making the rounds in the market, too.
The odd ones out
The index’s third best-performer over the last month, Moderna, is the index’s best-performing stock this year, up 28.3%. For that, it can thank a change of heart at the U.S. government’s Food and Drug Administration, plus a positive letter on its new combination Covid-19 and flu vaccine.
There’s also some other surprises:
- Coinbase (#4): +27% as digital assets have recovered; Bitcoin is back above $71,000
- Netflix (#10): +19% after walking away from Warner Bros. Discovery deal, leaving competitor Paramount Skydance to buy it
What’s down?
It’s great that there are winners, but what about the losers in the market? An easy answer would be firms affected by energy or chemical prices, but there are even more reverberations from the ongoing conflict, especially with respect to the give and get of inflation and interest rates.
Homebuilding
That’s best exemplified by the index’s worst performer over the period: Builders Firstsource Inc., which is down nearly 31% over the last month. Supply chain disruption could mean higher prices, which would likely preclude the U.S. from seeing lower rates this year.
That’s bad news for all homebuilders, including peers like Lennar (#17, -21.4%), which made the list as mortgage rates ticked up this week.
Related: Iran war causes mortgage rate surge
However, it’s also bad for other stocks related to the homebuilding or home improvement beat. Industrial distributor Pool Corporation (#9, -24%), building materials company CRH Plc (#16, -22.2%), Stanley Black & Decker Inc (, -22.4%), and paint company PPG Industries all made the list.
Travel brands
Travel companies, which are sensitive to the fast-rising price of oil, are a hallmark on the losing side of the market. The third worst-performer on the list is Carnival Corp, down 27.9% over the last month. It’s joined by airlines Southwest (#6, -25.2%) and United (#8, -24.3%).
Private credit names
Financials have been hammered amid worries of a “private credit contagion.” The index’s fourth worst performer over the last month is Ares Management (#4, -26.2%), which has declined as up to seven unique private credit funds have restricted or slowed withdrawals, leading to worries about the safety of these high-yield, higher-risk investments.
Semiconductor names
Semiconductor names such as Microchip Technology (#10, -23%) and NXP Semiconductors (#11, -23.7%) also cropped up on the bottom 20 list. This could be related to business-specific factors, but it could also be due to a gradual recognition that chipmakers could find themselves embroiled in the Iran conflict if it isn’t quickly resolved:
Related: The market finally sees energy and agriculture risk in Iran — why are they ignoring a possible “AI black swan?”
The odd ones out
Plummeting prices for containerboard, which is commonly used for shipping boxes or packaging, are also taking a number on International Paper (#7, -24.4%) and Smurfit WestRock plc (#20, -20.5%).
The second worst-performer in the index this month is Genuine Parts Company, which is down over 29% after announcing plans to split itself in two different entities. This doesn’t appear to bear anything in common with the Iran conflict, but it could have something to do with conditions in the auto marketplace.
A decline in shares of Brown-Forman also appears to be more related to a years-long waning in demand for spirits, as opposed to some connection with the ongoing crisis.
#stocks #moving #Iran #conflict #continues #week