During my career reporting on mortgage rates and home buying and selling trends, I have often paid close attention to real estate technology company Zillow’s published research that often includes making housing market predictions.
Zillow jumped on the occasion of the unfortunate March 6 jobs report to issue such a forecast.
“Total nonfarm payroll employment edged down by 92,000 in February, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.4 percent,” the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported. “Employment in health care decreased, reflecting strike activity. Employment in information and federal government continued to trend down.”
Related: Redfin, Zillow reveal major mortgage rate, housing market change
This reinforced the idea that job growth had stalled, according to Zillow. Downward revisions to the December 2025 and January 2026 job reports also indicated a weaker labor market than previously thought.
“The Zillow baseline housing forecast remains ‘stabilization with downside risk,'” Zillow predicted. “Affordability may improve, but softer hiring and elevated uncertainty can keep transactions subdued until households feel more secure.”
Zillow explains jobs reports, mortgage rates, housing market
A softer job market tends to make homebuyers pull back, particularly those buying for the first time or stretching to afford monthly payments.
Because housing decisions hinge on how secure people feel in their jobs and how confident they are about future earnings, any erosion in that confidence slows the churn. Here are three ways:
- Renters renew leases instead of moving up.
- Prospective buyers wait for more certainty.
- Potential sellers hold off listing their homes.
“There is an offset,” Zillow noted. “A weaker jobs report can support lower bond yields and mortgage rates, which helps affordability at the margin. But for housing turnover, confidence often matters as much as rates — and in a cooling-labor scenario, the confidence channel can dominate.”
February’s figures indicate employers remain cautious, a trend that can dampen home‑selling and buying activity despite improving affordability.
“If softer growth helps mortgage rates ease, that supports affordability,” wrote Zillow senior economist Orphe Divounguy. “But households still need strong income growth and confidence in job security to list, buy, or move.”
Freddie Mac reports mortgage rates holding steady
On March 5, Freddie Mac released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS), showing the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 6.00%.
“Mortgage rates held steady at 6% this week, hovering near their lowest level since 2022,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “In fact, rates are down nearly a full percentage point from this time in 2024, spurring activity from buyers, sellers and owners. As a result, refinance activity is up, and purchase applications are ahead of last year’s pace.”
The 15-year FRM averaged 5.43%, slightly down from last week when it averaged 5.44%, according to Freddie Mac. A year ago, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.79%.
On March 10, the 30-year FRM was 6.09% and the 15-year FRM was 5.69%, according to Mortgage News Daily (MND).
“Today’s mortgage rates are lower when compared to yesterday’s average prior to 4 p.m. ET,” wrote MSD chief operating officer Matthew Graham. “Later in the afternoon, multiple lenders announced improvements as the bond market rallied in response to geopolitical headlines. If we use those later, lower rates as a baseline, today’s average is roughly unchanged.”
“There were no major economic reports today — not that bonds have been too keen on reacting to econ data anyway,” Graham continued.
“War-related headlines remain the biggest risk for potential volatility despite historically significant econ data on tap in the coming days.”
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Redfin says jobs report unlikely to lower mortgage rates
“The surprisingly weak jobs report is stirring the pot this morning, but rates are unlikely to fall much, if at all,” wrote real estate technology company Redfin. “That’s because the jobs report is difficult to interpret, with tons of methodological nuance. Additionally, the intensifying conflict in Iran is driving the market.”
- Mortgage rates aren’t dropping the way they typically might after data like this because the intensifying conflict involving Iran is overshadowing economic signals.
- Rising oil prices are pushing rates slightly higher today and keeping day‑to‑day volatility elevated.
- The Fed remains in a holding pattern, and while today’s numbers could inch policymakers closer to another cut, one data point isn’t enough given how uneven recent jobs reports have been.
- Shifts in monetary‑policy expectations aren’t what’s driving rate movements right now.
- Geopolitical tensions have become the primary force behind rate swings.
- With conditions in the Middle East changing quickly and unpredictably, near‑term rate movements will be harder to anticipate.
(Source:Redfin)
Related: Redfin, Zillow reveal major mortgage rate, housing market change
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