Brent oil falls below $100 on optimism Iran war may end

Oil tumbled after President Donald Trump again signaled a potential end to the Iran war, even as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, and more US troops head to the region.

Brent crude fell below $100 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was around $97. Trump told reporters that the US could leave Iran within two to three weeks, and indicated an agreement with Tehran may be reached, but wasn’t necessary for the conflict to end.

The president will give an address to the nation at 9 p.m. Eastern time on Wednesday to provide an update, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said. Trump has regularly vacillated between saying an Iran deal is imminent and warning he’s prepared to ramp up military operations.

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Even if the war ends within Trump’s timeframe, it would take time for normal flows to resume through the crucial Strait of Hormuz, and some energy facilities have been damaged during the conflict. A third US aircraft carrier strike group is also heading to the Middle East, suggesting a possibility of further escalation.While Brent futures rose at a record pace last month, the price didn’t reach the heights of 2022 as traders bet on a conclusion to hostilities.“That complacency is a risk factor for markets,” Dominic Schnider, head of commodities at UBS Group AG’s wealth management unit, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “We have such a supply shock.”

The effective closure of Hormuz has choked off supplies of crude and gas to global markets, driving up energy prices and raising fears over an inflation crisis. The retail price of US gasoline has topped $4 a gallon for the first time since August 2022, which will likely heap more pressure on Trump.

Iranian demands

US officials haven’t explicitly specified who they’re talking to in Iran. The Islamic Republic’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera he had received messages from the US Middle East envoy, but no formal negotiations were taking place. Tehran has also laid out certain requirements to be met, including maintaining sovereignty over Hormuz.

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Trump on Tuesday gave a rough timeline for an end to the war, adding that he would leave it to other nations to resolve issues with the strait. “We’ll leave because there’s no reason for us to do this,” he told reporters at the White House.

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The Wall Street Journal reported that the United Arab Emirates has urged the US and military powers in Europe and Asia to form a coalition to open the waterway by force. China and Pakistan issued a joint call on Tuesday for an immediate ceasefire and for shipping to be safeguarded.

“The exaggeration and panic is starting to come out of the back of the futures price curves in crude oil,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president for trading at BOK Financial Securities Inc. “The market is feeling at least a short-term de-escalation and possibly more talks.”

Prices:
  • Brent for June settlement was down 3.9% at $99.89 a barrel as of 8:31 a.m. London time
  • WTI for May delivery shed 4% to $97.33 a barrel

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