After the Easter holidays, it seems that Markets are still praying for miracles.
Over the weekend, the situation in the Middle East did not worsen significantly.
On Friday, two U.S. pilots had to escape after an F-15 was downed by the IRGC, leading to a massive manhunt. Fortunately, the pilots were located after extensive efforts.
This search resulted in a notable decrease in the bombardment of IRGC targets and coincided with the United States’ efforts to negotiate a ceasefire deal with Iran.
The deadline for this ceasefire is tomorrow evening at 8:00 P.M ET (make sure to mark it on your calendars!).
If no agreement is reached by then, traders can expect chaos in the markets.
The actual lack of progress or clarity is reflected in WTI and Brent Crude Oil prices, which have remained unchanged since Friday, close to their relative highs.
This suggests that other assets may be adopting a maybe too optimistic outlook!
Is this delay a sign of mispricing or just waiting it out?
It’s too early to determine whether oil bulls or stock bulls will prevail, but one thing is certain: we will know more by tomorrow evening.
US and global stock indexes (those that were open on Easter Monday) managed to rebound as hopes for deals improved market sentiment.
However, in the absence of an agreement, a sharp increase in selling pressure could occur. So far, bearish positions related to the conflict are at least starting to unwind.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have benefited from this daily optimism, bouncing back to levels not seen since March 26 (BTC reached $70,000 again today!)
An Easter miracle is still a possibility, but with Iran standing firm on their demands and rejecting the latest US proposal, the chances for a ceasefire appear slim.
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