Ford stock drops, but April sales figures can be deceiving

The headline is certainly alarming: Ford’s April 2026 sales are down 14.4% year over year.

The subhead doesn’t get any better. Electric vehicles were down nearly 25%, and hybrids, which had previously been a source of growth, were down by nearly a third. Overall, Ford sold 178,667 vehicles this past April. It sold 208,675 during the same month in 2025.

Ford Trucks, the company’s most popular segment, reported a 14.1% decline, led by a 14.7% decline in F-Series. SUVs, its second-best-selling segment, were down 15.9% year over year.

The headline was undoubtedly contributing to Monday’s more than 3% stock decline.

But a bit of context is necessary since 2026 was always destined to be a bad year for comps for the entire U.S. auto industry based on last year’s tariff-induced buying spree.

Ford faces tough comps in April sales report

For automakers, 2025 represented an opportunity of a lifetime, as the threat of tariffs driving prices higher drove potential buyers to dealer lots in droves to get ahead of the expected price increases.

OEMs like Ford capitalized on the buying rush by offering dealer incentives, further enticing buyers. The strategy worked as a year ago in May, Ford reported that its market share grew 2% year over year to 14.7%. Ford said its total sales rose in the June quarter by about 7x the overall industry rate and that it was the top-selling brand in the U.S. during the first half of the year.

The company has known for a year that this year’s results were not going to be able to match last April’s 16.2% year over year increase. F-Series sales jumped 12.7% while Ford Trucks saw a 19% increase to 116,955.

It wasn’t just Ford. The entire auto industry had a seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales of 16.1 million in April. While that was on the high end of consensus estimates between 15.8 million and 16.1 million, it was 6.7% lower than a year ago, according to a BNP Paribas note viewed by TheStreet. Ford reported a 5% decline in wholesales, slightly better than the industry’s 6% decline.

Ford’s 12.9% market share this April was more in line with its recent historical levels.

Ford is still spending money to get buyers through the door, as incentive spending was up 2.8% year over year, per BNPP, though it was also down 11% from March.

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“The upside case for Ford has always relied on operational execution,” BNPP automotive analyst James Picariello said. “However, we now reassess several near/mid-term factors to potentially limit the company’s full throttle tied to a heavy 2024 midcycle refresh for Blue, which presents added engineering & material cost reduction risk. We also view Ford’s overall portfolio as less well-positioned for stronger down-mix shifts, including elevated current U.S. days’ supply.”

BNPP has a neutral rating and $13 price target on Ford. Shares closed Monday’s session down 3.2% to $11.50.

Ford brings back employee pricing to boost sales

Starting Friday, May 1, Ford brought back employee pricing, one of its most popular incentive programs, which gives the general public the same discounts that Ford employees enjoy.

“American Value. For American Values,” will run through July 6, and most new 2025 and 2026 Ford and Lincoln vehicles are eligible for the discount.

“It is our way of sticking up for the people who keep this nation moving,” Frick said. “We are deeply invested in the American worker and the neighborhoods where we live.”

Ford went on to offer other incentives, such as Labor Day and July 4 sales, as well as 0-0-0 financing.

Related: Ford maintains a big advantage over GM in one key area

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