ECB between fighting inflation and weaker growth

• Inflation in France, Italy, Germany and Spain is expected to remain above the ECB’s 2% target.
• Persistent price pressure, driven partly by energy risks and supply concerns, may strengthen the case for a June rate hike.
• The ECB faces a difficult choice between fighting inflation and avoiding further weakness in eurozone growth.

Inflation in the largest eurozone economies likely rose in May or remained at an elevated level. The latest data from France, Italy, Germany and Spain will therefore be crucial in assessing whether the European Central Bank decides to raise interest rates in June. Such a move would mark a significant shift in direction after a series of cuts that have eased financing conditions in the region in recent months.

Inflation readings from the four largest eurozone economies are due to be published on May 29. Their importance is particularly high because France, Italy, Germany and Spain account for a substantial share of economic activity across the entire single-currency area. The results from these countries will therefore have a strong impact on the aggregate eurozone inflation reading, scheduled for June 2.

Inflation still above the ECB’s target

In April, inflation in the eurozone stood at 3%, remaining clearly above the European Central Bank’s 2% target. Economists’ forecasts suggest that May did not bring any significant improvement. In France, inflation may have risen from 2.5% to 2.9%. In Spain, it likely remained at 3.5%. In Italy, it may have accelerated to 3.3%, and in Germany, it may have stayed at 2.9%.

Persisting price pressure is being driven mainly by more expensive energy and concerns about potential disruptions to commodity supplies, including the risk of the Strait of Hormuz being closed. This is one of the most important routes for transporting crude oil, which is why tensions around the region quickly feed into inflation expectations. Bond markets have also begun to price in more strongly the risk that elevated inflation will persist longer than previously assumed.

Stronger arguments for a rate hike

Among policymakers and economists, there is a growing belief that the European Central Bank may be forced to respond. EU Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said the central bank’s response to persistent inflationary pressure is “clear.” Meanwhile, ECB member Alexander Demarco described a June rate hike as “likely.”

Bloomberg Economics economist Simona Delle Chiaie points to a similarly cautious scenario. In her view, the ECB may decide to raise interest rates in order to prevent inflation from becoming more entrenched. At the same time, she notes that weaker economic conditions and a cooler labor market may limit the risk of a lasting price spiral, which complicates the central bank’s decision.

A difficult choice between inflation and economic growth

If the May data confirm that inflation in the largest eurozone economies remains stubbornly high, the ECB may decide to raise interest rates for the first time since September 2023. This would be a clear shift after a series of eight cuts that brought the deposit rate down to 2%.

For households and businesses, such a scenario would mean the risk of more expensive credit and tougher financing conditions. Higher interest rates help curb inflation, but at the same time they may weaken investment, consumption and the pace of economic growth.

The European Central Bank is therefore facing a difficult dilemma. On the one hand, it must defend the credibility of its inflation target and respond to rising prices. On the other hand, it should be careful not to let an overly decisive tightening of monetary policy deepen the eurozone economy’s slowdown. The May inflation data may determine which of these concerns proves more important for the ECB.

Opinions are the authors’; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.