Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) just had the kind of post-earnings day that looks ugly on a chart but reads very differently in a research note.
The stock closed down 4.42% at $227.55 on Friday, May 22, 2026, after fiscal 2027 net bookings guidance of $8.0 billion to $8.2 billion landed well below the roughly $9.13 billion Wall Street consensus.
That guide became the headline.
The “Grand Theft Auto VI” launch date, reaffirmed for Nov. 19, became the footnote.
But Wedbush thinks investors got that backwards.
In a note published on May 22, the firm called the fiscal 2027 guide “overly conservative,” Investopedia noted, and consistent with what it sees as Take-Two’s well-documented habit of sandbagging in major launch years.
The firm kept its outperform rating, $300 price target, and Best Ideas List inclusion intact.
If Wedbush is right, Friday’s drop was a setup, not a warning.
Why Wedbush thinks the FY27 guide is a floor, not a ceiling
Wedbush’s argument rests on pattern recognition. Take-Two has a long history of issuing pre-launch guidance that the company then steps over comfortably once a major franchise title actually ships.
Bank of America, MKM, and KeyBanc all flagged the same “conservative guidance” pattern when Take-Two issued its soft fiscal 2020 outlook after the launch of “Red Dead Redemption 2.” According to The Motley Fool, that game went on to generate $725 million in opening-weekend sales and has since sold more than 85 million units, GameRant reported.
Related: Morgan Stanley sends clear message on Take-Two stock ahead of GTA VI
Wedbush wrote that the $8.0B to $8.2B range is “intentional conservatism consistent with Take-Two’s historical floor-guidance pattern in major launch years,” Yahoo Finance reports.
The firm also bumped its probability that “GTA VI” is released on the November date from 75% to 90%.
That second move matters more than it sounds. Delay risk has been the overhang on this stock for two years.
Photo by SOPA Images on Getty Images
What Wedbush is actually telling Take-Two investors
- Q1 FY27 guide of $8.0B to $8.2B is a floor, not a forecast.
- GTA VI launch date probability raised to 90%.
- Outperform rating, $300 price target, and Best Ideas List inclusion all reiterated.
- Stock trades at just 23x consensus FY28 EPS, which Wedbush says doesn’t price in “GTA VI.”
How Wedbush’s $300 Take-Two target compares to the rest of the Street
Wedbush isn’t alone in defending TTWO, but its number sits at the top of the post-earnings range.
Wells Fargo’s Alec Brondolo cut his price target to $287 from $293 on Friday, May 22, while keeping an overweight rating, according to MarketBeat.
Morgan Stanley analyst Matthew Cost held his $280 target and overweight rating, also citing Take-Two’s “long history of conservative forecasting,” Invezz reports.
The spread now looks like this:
- Wedbush: $300, outperform
- Wells Fargo: $287, overweight
- Morgan Stanley: $280, overweight
From May 22’s $227.55 close, Wedbush’s target implies roughly 32% upside.
What the “GTA VI” unit math actually looks like
The Street’s “GTA VI” unit estimates are spread across a 31 to 40 million unit range for fiscal 2027.
Morgan Stanley sits at the high end with 40 million units. Wolfe Research is closer to 31 to35 million. Wedbush thinks the consensus range itself could prove conservative if “GTA VI” matches GTA V’s install-base penetration.
For context, “GTA V” has now sold more than 230 million units lifetime, Take-Two’s May 2026 earnings call revealed.
A high-end sell-through scenario doesn’t just beat the guide. It resets the FY28 earnings baseline that the current 23x multiple is built on. That’s why Wedbush keeps emphasizing the multiple in its note rather than the headline guidance miss.
The risks worth taking seriously for TTWO
Pattern recognition cuts both ways.
Wedbush’s thesis assumes Take-Two is sandbagging. If management is actually signaling softness across NBA 2K, Zynga mobile, or the broader recurring consumer spending base, the guide is real and the multiple has further to compress.
More Gaming & Entertainment:
- Morgan Stanley sends clear message on Take-Two stock ahead of GTA VI
- Roblox stock tumbles 24% after slashing full-year 2026 bookings guidance
- Netflix price surge signals end of passive subscriber era
A second delay would do real damage. The stock has already absorbed multiple “GTA VI” slips, Yahoo Finance data confirm, and another push past Nov. 19 would likely reset the whole thesis.
Marketing spend is the third variable. Rockstar’s pre-launch campaign begins this summer, Goldman’s Eric Sheridan noted, and elevated spending will pressure margins through the launch window.
What this means for TTWO investors right now
If you already own TTWO, Wedbush’s read is that the May 22 drop was a “sell the news” reaction to a guide management never intended as a real forecast. Sitting tight through the November launch lines up with the firm’s playbook.
For anyone considering making an entry, the setup is cleaner than it was on that Friday.
Delay risk has dropped, the multiple has compressed to 23x forward earnings, and the next catalyst is a hard date on the calendar.
However, before making an entry, size the position around the risk you’re actually taking.
This is a one-game-dependent thesis for the next six months, and even Wedbush’s pattern only works if the pattern holds.
Related: Take-Two CEO says GTA VI could lift the entire gaming industry
#Wedbush #sends #bold #message #TakeTwo #stock #earnings