Trump signals possible end to war, floats removing oil sanctions

President Donald Trump said he would waive oil-related sanctions, have the US Navy escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz and predicted on Monday that the war with Iran would resolve “very soon” as he confronted mounting economic and political pressure and days of dramatic fluctuations in oil markets.

The president said he didn’t believe the conflict would be over this week, but insisted the operation was ahead of schedule and looked to shore up investors increasingly concerned about energy prices. He vowed bombing “at a much, much harder level” if Iran disrupted oil supplies.

“We’re looking to keep the oil prices down,” Trump said at a news conference at his resort in Doral, Florida. “They went artificially up because of this excursion.”

Trump said he could waive “certain oil-related sanctions to reduce prices” but didn’t offer additional specifics beyond acknowledging he had discussed the topic with Russian President Vladimir Putin in a phone call earlier Monday. Russia has faced a range of restrictions on its vast oil industry, including a price cap on its crude and US sanctions on its two largest producers, in a bid to deprive the country of revenue over its war in Ukraine.

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Trump is mulling a range of options to combat surging oil and gasoline prices in the wake of the Iran war, according to people familiar with the matter. Those could include releasing emergency stockpiles, pausing federal gas tax collections – something Congress would have to approve — and the Treasury Department’s involvement in the oil futures market. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had previously suggested the US could waive more Russian oil sanctions, after moving last week to temporarily allow Indian refiners to purchase more Russian oil.

While US officials have repeatedly insisted they can continue the conflict indefinitely, Trump’s remarks underscored a new willingness by the White House to publicly indicate that it could be moving soon to attempt to wrap up hostilities.

“Together with our Israeli partners, we’re crushing the enemy in an overwhelming display of technical skill and military force,” Trump told Republican lawmakers earlier Monday. At the press conference, the president claimed the US had hit 5 000 targets in the country, said Iran’s missile capability was down to 10%, and that drone launches from the country had decreased 83%. The US military objectives could be described as “pretty well complete,” Trump said.

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At the same time, Trump acknowledged unanswered questions that remained about the leadership in Tehran and vowed he would “not relent until the enemy is totally and decisively defeated.” The president said that while the US had sunk more than 50 Iranian ships, a prolonged conflict could see the US bomb additional “important targets” including electricity production facilities.

“We’ve already won in many ways, but we haven’t won enough,” he said. “We go forward more determined than ever to achieve ultimate victory that will end this long-running danger once and for all.”

The comments underscored the challenges ahead for Trump, who will need to reconcile his promises of total victory with the economic and political consequences of continuing the war.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, interviewed on PBS’s News Hour on Monday, said his nation had “very bitter experience” of negotiating with the Americans. He pointed out that in June last year and again this year when talks were going on between the two, the US had chosen to attack Iran.

“So I don’t think talking with Americans anymore would be on our agenda,” he told PBS.

Elsewhere, Syria said Lebanon-based Hezbollah had fired artillery shells at its army positions west of Damascus, according to state-run Sana. It also said Hezbollah had been sending reinforcements to the border between Syria and Lebanon.

US stocks recovered from losses earlier Monday, after the president made initial comments signalling an openness to ending the conflict, according to CBS News. Those comments sent the S&P 500 up as much as 1%, after a CBS reporter posted the comments on X. Oil and US Treasury yields fell.

US oil futures fell below $90 a barrel post-settlement after surging above $119 early in the session in a volatile trading day. Markets eased as the world’s largest economies considered a coordinated effort on emergency energy supplies, and Trump’s comments signalled he could seek a conclusion to the conflict.

Still, the Strait of Hormuz remained all but closed, with no finalised plans on how nations will safeguard ships passing through the key waterway.

Trump told CBS the Strait of Hormuz was seeing more ship traffic and that he is “thinking about taking it over.” It was not immediately clear what specific actions the president was contemplating.

The US president, already facing domestic concerns over persistent inflation ahead of November midterm elections, must now grapple with rising gasoline pump prices as the war shows no letup. On Sunday, he called $100 oil a “small price to pay” and said the cost “will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over.”

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has forced Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, to reduce production, according to a person familiar with the matter. That follows similar moves by the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq.

Trump on Monday warned Iran against blocking oil transporting through the strait, saying that if it did so “they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far.”

“Additionally, we will take out easily destroyable targets that will make it virtually impossible for Iran to ever be built back, as a Nation, again — Death, Fire, and Fury will reign upon them — But I hope, and pray, that it does not happen!”

Futures pulled back after Group of Seven finance ministers said they were ready to take any steps needed to support global energy supply, including releasing strategic oil reserves.

Still, the G7 is “not there yet” in terms of agreeing to tap emergency energy supplies, according to France, which holds the current presidency. But the group said in a statement that it would “continue to closely monitor the situation and developments in the energy markets” and “stand ready to take necessary measures, including to support global supply of energy such as stockpile release.”

The US reported its seventh casualty on Sunday. Two Israeli soldiers and about a dozen Israeli civilians have also lost their lives. Data from the UAE suggests Iran’s barrage of missiles and drones is easing, even as Tehran is still attacking Israel and Arab Gulf states regularly with drones and missiles.

More than 1 300 Iranians have died in the war so far, according to an official toll that number has not been updated for several days. Some 486 people have died in Lebanon, according to the nation’s health ministry. Four civilians died in the UAE, while two members of its armed forces were killed when a malfunctioning helicopter crashed. There have also been several deaths in other Gulf countries.

Israeli forces maintained attacks on southern Lebanon, aiming to degrade Iran-aligned Hezbollah. The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation intercepted a ballistic missile fired from Iran toward Turkey on Monday, the second such incident, raising the risk that the military alliance could be drawn more directly into the conflict.

On Sunday, Iran’s media announced that Mojtaba Khamenei – whose father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ruled the country for almost 37 years and was killed when US-Israeli strikes began on 28 February – won a “decisive vote” in Iran’s Assembly of Experts to become the supreme leader.

The 56-year-old has deep ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is about the most powerful military and economic organisation in Iran. The group pledged full obedience to the new leader.

On Monday, Trump indicated his displeasure, saying Iran should put in a leader “that’s going to be able to do something peacefully, for a change.”

The new leader “shares many of the same ideological leanings as his father and will aim to maintain continuity – including in the war,” said Dina Esfandiary, a Bloomberg Geoeconomics analyst. His election “suggests Iran won’t be shifting tack in the Middle East war,” she said.

Saudi Arabia and Bahrain dealt with incoming projectiles again overnight, while blasts were reported across Iran, including in the capital Tehran.

Saudi Arabia, which has intensified its diplomatic outreach to Iran, has also hardened its tone in recent days. The Saudi foreign ministry warned Monday that Tehran’s actions risk further escalation, in which Iran “will be its biggest loser.”

On Monday, the US ordered American non-essential diplomats in Saudi Arabia to leave the country, citing safety risks.

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