You’ve probably heard the number by now. Roughly $175 billion in tariffs collected under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were ruled illegal by the Supreme Court on Feb. 20.
Companies paid real money on goods that eventually made their way into your grocery store, your Amazon cart, and your local hardware aisle. So where’s the refund?
That’s the question millions of Americans are asking, and the answer, at least right now, is complicated. The Trump administration this week outlined a four-step refund process in a court filing to the U.S. Court of International Trade.
The system is being built, and it even has a timeline. But if you’re expecting a direct deposit anytime soon, you’ll need to pump the brakes.
The government’s four-step refund plan, explained
In a six-page filing submitted to the U.S. Court of International Trade this week, Brandon Lord, the executive director of U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s trade policy department, laid out exactly how the refund process will work.
The system is called the Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries, or CAPE portal, Yahoo Finance reports.
The four steps, according to the filing, are structured to electronically move claims from submission to payment. How the CAPE portal process works
- Step 1: Claim submission. Companies file refund claims through a web-based portal.
- Step 2:Mass processing. CBP runs bulk verification of claims against import records.
- Step 3: Review of findings. The government reviews processed claims for accuracy before approval.
- Step 4: Electronic payment. Approved refunds are sent directly to the company’s designated bank account.
Lord said the system’s components are between 40% and 80% complete, with performance testing set for the coming weeks. A separate government filing from last week indicated the portal could be operational within 45 days.
How the Supreme Court forced the refund question
This refund process exists because the Supreme Court gave the government no choice. On Feb. 20, 2026, the Court ruled 6–3 in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump that IEEPA does not authorize the president to impose tariffs.
Chief Justice John Roberts, writing for the majority, said the law’s text simply could not support such a sweeping power, according to SCOTUSblog.
The ruling invalidated tariffs in two major categories. First, the country-by-country reciprocal tariffs were announced on what Trump called “Liberation Day” in April 2025. Second, the 25% duties imposed on some goods from Canada, China, and Mexico.
The court order that set the refund clock ticking
Senior Judge Richard Eaton of the Manhattan-based Court of International Trade then issued an order requiring the government to refund all illegally collected tariffs. He also ruled that companies are entitled to interest on those payments, not just the principal.
The Trump administration initially tried to delay the refund question for three months. The court rejected that approach. Now, the government is providing weekly updates on its progress in building the refund system.
The staggering scale of what’s owed
The numbers behind this refund process are enormous. Economists at the University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Wharton Budget Model estimate that IEEPA-based tariff collections total roughly $175 billion to $179 billion.
The Ropes & Gray analysis noted that this figure exceeds the combined fiscal 2025 spending of the Department of Transportation and the Department of Justice.
More than 1,000 businesses had already filed refund claims with the Court of International Trade before the Supreme Court ruling. That number has continued to grow. Companies, including Costco and Nintendo, have pursued legal action to recover what they paid.
The fiscal problem this creates for Washington
The refund liability creates a genuine fiscal challenge. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the Republican tax bill, was built partly on the assumption that tariff revenue would help fund tax cuts over the next decade. Republican estimates put that revenue at over $2 trillion over the 2025–2034 period. With the IEEPA tariffs now struck down, that revenue is gone.
Related: Trump hikes new tariffs to 15%
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has argued that a combination of tariffs under Sections 122, 232, and 301 will maintain tariff revenue levels in 2026. But legal challenges to those replacement tariffs are already underway. Twenty-four states filed a lawsuit in March 2026 challenging the Section 122 tariffs.
Refunds go to importers first, not directly to you
This is the part that matters most if you’re reading this as a consumer, not a trade lawyer. The refunds from the CAPE portal go to importers of record. That means the companies that paid the border tariffs.
Under existing regulations (19 C.F.R. § 24.36), refunds are paid to the entity that originally submitted the duties, not to the end consumer. That doesn’t mean consumers are completely shut out, but it does mean you’re at the end of a long chain.
The Costco class-action lawsuit could change the equation
A Costco customer this week proposed a nationwide class-action lawsuit in federal court in Illinois, arguing that the retailer should be required to return any tariff refunds directly to shoppers. That case could set a precedent on whether consumers have a legal claim to a refund of dollars that flow back to retailers and importers.
Costco has already voluntarily promised to pass refunds along to members. CEO Ron Vachris said the company would find the best way to return the money, though specifics remain unclear.
But a KPMG survey of 300 U.S. business leaders found that only 18% said they would fully reverse tariff-related price hikes. Another 34% said they’d partially roll back increases.
What these tariffs have already cost your household
Even if the refund money never reaches you directly, it helps to understand what you’ve already been paying. The Tax Foundation estimates that Trump’s tariffs would amount to an average tax increase of $1,000 per U.S. household in 2025, rising to $1,300 in 2026 if the policies remained in place.
Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that nearly 90% of tariff costs were borne by American firms and consumers, not foreign exporters. A study from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy put that figure even higher, at 96%.
The tariffs hit lower-income households hardest. Yale’s Budget Lab found the burden on households in the lowest income bracket was more than three times that of the highest earners.
Polling shows Americans want direct relief
New polling from Groundwork Collaborative and Data for Progress found that about 80% of likely U.S. voters believe tariff refunds should be issued. The vast majority of respondents also said American consumers should receive some form of direct relief as part of the process.
Right now, there is no mechanism for that. The CAPE portal is designed to process business-to-government refunds. Consumer relief, if it happens, would need to come through a different channel, whether that’s corporate price rollbacks, class-action settlements, or new legislation.
New tariffs are already replacing the old ones
Even as the refund process takes shape, the Trump administration is moving aggressively to rebuild its tariff framework using different legal authorities.
On the same day the Supreme Court ruled, President Trump signed a proclamation imposing a new 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The next day, he raised it to 15%, the maximum allowed under that statute.
Section 122 tariffs are limited to 150 days and would require congressional approval to continue beyond that period. They expire on July 24, 2026, unless extended. In most cases, the 15% rate is significantly lower than the IEEPA tariffs it replaced, particularly for goods from Canada, Mexico, China, and the European Union.
Section 301 investigations could bring tariffs back to IEEPA levels
On March 11, the U.S. Trade Representative formally launched Section 301 investigations targeting more than a dozen countries. The countries include China, the EU, Canada, Mexico, Japan, and several Southeast Asian nations, according to Holland & Knight’s analysis.
These investigations could provide the legal basis for new tariffs that are neither time-limited nor capped at 15%.
For you, this means the price relief from the Supreme Court ruling may be temporary. If Section 301 tariffs are imposed this summer at rates similar to the old IEEPA levels, the cost-of-living impact could return in full.
What you can do while you wait
You can’t file a claim on the CAPE portal. That’s reserved for importers. But you’re not powerless. Here are steps to protect your household finances;
- Track prices on big purchases: If you’re planning to buy appliances, electronics, furniture, or a vehicle, compare current prices to pre-tariff levels. Some retailers may begin lowering prices as refunds flow back. Others won’t.
- Watch for class-action notifications: If you’re a Costco member or frequent shopper at major retailers, keep an eye out for class-action suit updates. Consumer-side lawsuits are still in early stages, but they could result in direct refunds or credits.
- Be cautious about timing large imports: If you run a small business that imports goods, the Section 122 tariffs remain in effect at 15% through July 24. Pricing and sourcing decisions should account for the possibility that Section 301 replacement tariffs could follow immediately.
- Check your 2025 tax refund: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s tax changes mean many filers are seeing larger refunds this spring. That’s separate from tariff refunds, but it’s money back in your pocket. Make sure you’ve filed and that your withholding is accurate for 2026.
From what I observe, the government is building a system to return billions in illegally collected tariffs. But that money flows to businesses first. Whether any of it reaches you depends on lawsuits still being filed, corporate decisions still being made, and a political process that’s far from settled.
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