Goldman Sachs struck a rather surprisingly constructive tone on the stock market just before April begins.
As per reporting from Seeking Alpha, the bank’s analysts feel the market’s recent sell-off, exasperated by the Iran War, may have, in fact, improved the near-term setup for investors.
Following last week’s punishing pullback, positioning has eased, and expectations have effectively been reset, laying the groundwork for a more balanced foundation.
That shift puts a lot more emphasis on the upcoming Q1 earnings season, which could prove a critical stretch for markets.
At the time of writing, the S&P 500 closed at 6,528.52, according to Yahoo Finance, up 184.80 points, or 2.91%, in an incredible relief rally.
However, even after that jump, the index was in the red by 329.95 points, or 4.8%, from 6,858.47 on Jan. 2, 2026. The comeback rally was driven by hopes for Iran de-escalation, easing oil prices, and a tremendous rebound in tech stocks.
The bullishness builds on my recent coverage of Morgan Stanley’s Chief Equity Strategist, Mike Wilson, who highlighted that the S&P 500-to-gold ratio jumped to around 1.47, suggesting that capital has started to rotate back into stocks.
Goldman’s latest call essentially builds on that, reinforcing a far more constructive setup heading into earnings season.
Photo by Bloomberg on Getty Images
SPY — State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF trust returns (proxy for the S&P 500)
- 1W: -2.18%.
- 1M: -6.55%.
- 6M: -3.77%.
- YTD: -5.99%.
- 1Y: 15.37%.
- 3Y: 58.80%.
- 5Y: 62.41%.
Source: Seeking Alpha.
What Goldman Sachs sees for stocks in April
Goldman Sachs’ take is that the recent disruptions may have actually set things up well for the stock market, with a far more balanced distribution of outcomes heading into April.
More Wall Street
- Billionaire Dalio sends 2-words on Fed pick Warsh
- Top analyst bets these stocks will boost your portfolio in 2026
- Bank of America sends quiet warning to stock market investors
That matters because investor expectations aren’t as high as they once were, with fewer investors expecting AI bellwethers to deliver another eye-popping guidance.
Now the focus is squarely on the Q1 earnings season, and Goldman is looking for
For investors, that shifts the focus squarely onto the first-quarter earnings season. Goldman is looking for 12% S&P 500 earnings growth this year.
That assumes the Middle East conflict is winding down soon rather than continuing for a prolonged disruption.
Related: Nvidia’s $2 billion bet reveals its next big target
At the same time, Goldman warns that instead of chasing headline beats, investors will focus more on what companies say next.
It’s important to note that elevated energy prices and supply chain disruptions will continue to pressure margins, especially outside tech.
In that environment, guidance becomes the real test. If we see company CEOs sound much more confident despite the economic headwinds, we could see the recent pullback as the start of a deeper break.
That should give investors a lot more confidence to scoop up quality names on weakness, especially those that are still delivering steady demand, strong margins, and upbeat forecasts.
Wall Street raises S&P 500 earnings outlook
- Barclays: The bank bumped its 2026 S&P 500 EPS forecast to $321 from $305, slapping a higher year-end index target.
- FactSet / John Butters: for Q1 2026, the S&P 500 earnings growth estimate was revamped to 13% from 12.8% at Dec. 31; FactSet’s CY 2026 growth is forecasted at 17.1%.
Related: Nvidia stock sends valuation signal for first time in 13 years
- UBS Global Wealth Management:UBS lifted the S&P 500 2026 EPS forecast to $280 from $275 in May 2025, then to $290 from $285 in August 2025.
- Wells Fargo Investment Institute: raised its 2025 S&P 500 EPS forecast to $265 in July 2025 as earnings impressed.
- Oppenheimer / Stoltzfus: restored its S&P 500 earnings estimate to $275 from $265 in July 2025.
The April earnings reports that could set the tone for stocks
All eyes are on April’s earnings calendar, which is likely to matter a lot more than usual amidst a shakier macro backdrop.
That said, here are five key reports that stand out for their coverage of credit, consumer spending, AI demand, chip sector momentum, and healthcare costs.
- JPMorganChase (April 14): Arguably the tone-setter of the season. Naturally, investors will be all ears over what the management says about credit quality, loan demand, trading activity, and the overall health of the U.S. economy.
- Bank of America (April 15): The report should help confirm whether the banking read-through is broadening. Investors will be looking intently at the data on card spending, net interest income, and commentary on equity markets.
- TSMC (April 16): For tech investors, this report is perhaps the biggest to drop in April. Like always, the report will offer a clear read-through on AI-led chip demand, broader electronics recovery, and semiconductor capex trends.
- Netflix (April 16): Netflix’s earnings report will offer clarity on consumer demand and ad-supported monetization.
- UnitedHealth Group (April 21): The report is essentially a non-tech check on cost pressures and earnings durability. If we see guidance hold up here, it would support the case for a broadening trade.
S&P 500 earnings growth over the past five years
Given Goldman Sachs’ sharp take, it’s important to examine how S&P 500 earnings growth has trended over recent years.
The figures for 2020 through 2024 reflect actual results, while 2025 is essentially the latest full-year estimate based on FactSet data.
- 2020: S&P 500 earnings fell 10.2% year-over-year.
- 2021: S&P 500 earnings grew 47.9% year-over-year.
- 2022: S&P 500 earnings grew 4.1% year-over-year.
- 2023: S&P 500 earnings grew 1.1% year-over-year.
- 2024: S&P 500 earnings grew 11.0% year-over-year; FactSet said actual bottom-up EPS was $243.02.
- 2025: FactSet’s CY 2025 estimate was 12.1% year-over-year, and a later FactSet-based report showed full-year EPS at $272.91 as of Jan. 30, 2026, which implies nearly 12.3% year-over-year versus 2024.
Source: FactSet Insights.
Related: JPMorgan delivers blunt message on interest rate cuts
#Goldman #Sachs #sends #surprise #message #stock #market #investors