Tesla has already had a rough run in 2026, but on Thursday, April 2, the stock had its worst session of the year after the company reported first-quarter deliveries that fell short of industry expectations. Analysts at BNP Paribas are sounding the alarm, saying 2026 will be a make-or-break year for the electric vehicle maker.
Tesla reported first-quarter production of 408,386 vehicles and deliveries of 358,023, well short of analyst expectations of 370,000 and its internal consensus estimate of 365,000.
It wasn’t all bad news: deliveries actually improved 6% year over year, but the increase is somewhat skewed since 2025’s Q1 total was 13% lower than 2024’s. So the company’s comps were favorable.
Tesla’s stock fell 5.4% Thursday, bringing its 2026 decline to more than 20% so far.
Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y accounted for 341,893 of the deliveries, while the “other models,” like the Model S and Model X (which will officially end production forever later this year) and the Cybertruck, accounted for the remaining 16,000+ deliveries.
But while Musk criticizes the state of California on Twitter, and makes juvenile jokes about rockets, analysts at BNP Paribas have serious concerns about the company, saying its switch away from the Model S and Model X towards Optimus robots and Cybercabs better work, because Tesla’s future may be at stake.
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Stakes for Tesla ‘could not be higher’ says BNP Paribas analysts
Earlier this year, Tesla announced it was pulling the plug on the Model S and Model X and would replace that production capacity with Optimus humanoid robots as part of the company’s plan to build 1 million of them per year.
That plan may worry investors, since there is currently no discernible market for humanoid robots, and selling 10,000 of them in a year would be impressive. But the vehicle models the company is getting rid of haven’t sold either, so that it may be a wash in the end.
However, analysts at BNP Paribas aren’t taking this Tesla experiment lightly because the company is also spending a lot of money to make it happen.
“Given Tesla’s sizable cash burn this year ($7 billion estimate by BNPP) and indications for massive multi-year investments on the horizon tied to a TeraFab and 100 GW solar capacity, the ‘stakes’ of TSLA’s demonstrated robotaxi and Optimus progress could not be higher,” analysts said in a note Thursday.
According to BNP, the other models that combined delivered 16,000 vehicles in the quarter benefited from demand that was artificially inflated, so once again, moving off of them makes sense. However, Musk has made some pretty big promises about what Optimus and Robotaxi can do, and the firm says it’s time for Tesla to put up or shut up in 2026.
“We view 1Q26’s deliveries – modestly below consensus – as yet another input to the TSLA stock’s challenged setup for this year, with EGS storage deployments also meaningfully light,” BNP analysts said.
“A critical factor to this year is the Co.’s progress rate in its active Robotaxi fleet, which is climbing yet still limited to just two cities. The core catalysts for TSLA center on its ability to show meaningful progress toward its AI-defined future, inclusive of Robotaxi fleet expansion (targeting 7 new cities in 1H26) and commercialized production of Optimus by year-end.”
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If their analysis seems a bit dim, the firm is one of the few on Wall Street with a negative view of the stock.
BNP reiterated its underperform rating and $280 price target on Tesla shares, representing a potential 22% downside from the stock’s current level.
Tesla investors get good news out of the latest delivery data
It wasn’t all doom and gloom for Tesla in the first quarter.
The electric vehicle maker topped Chinese rival BYD for the global EV sales crown, and the company even increased deliveries in BYD’s home country as sales of Model 3 and Model Y cars made in Tesla’s Shanghai factory, which includes exports to Europe and other markets, rose by nearly 9% year over year to 85,670, Reuters reported.
It was the fifth straight month of rising sales and the second straight quarter of year-over-year gains.
After losing close to half of its market share in Europe last year, driven by numerous issues, including CEO Elon Musk’s increased involvement in politics. The company is showing signs of recovery in the region so far in 2026.
Year over year, Tesla registrations in France rose 55% in February, 74% in Spain, and 32% in Norway. Tesla more than doubled its sales in Portugal, with registrations jumping 112%.
France, Germany, Belgium, and the Netherlands account for 60% of European EV sales on their own, and the results are mixed.
France and Germany saw registration gains of 52% and 24%, respectively, while Belgium and the Netherlands experienced declines of 11.5% and 35.4%, respectively.
Tesla’s sales in Europe declined by nearly 40% from January to April 2025, compared to the same period the previous year. In June, sales dropped another 39%. Tesla’s first-half sales were down 44% in Europe, per the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA).
That trend followed into the second half of 2025 across the continent, including the United Kingdom, where registrations dropped by more than 29% in December.
The year 2025 was the second consecutive year of declining Tesla sales in Europe. Last year, they fell 27%, despite the company introducing newer, cheaper versions of its top-selling Model Y and Model 3 vehicles.
Tesla’s market share in the EU, Britain, and the European Free Trade Association fell to 0.8% in January, well below its 1.8% market share in 2025, 2.5% in 2024, and 2.9% the year before that.
Related: Tesla gets some more good news from a key region
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