FX picks up again! US Dollar tumbles after the ECB and BOE – EUR/USD, GBP/USD Overview

We are officially concluding a massive, high-stakes week for global monetary policy, with the FOMC, BoC, BoJ, ECB, and BoE all revealing their interest rate decisions and forward guidance for the next month and a half.

Overall, the markets received nothing revolutionary; most central banks remain firmly entrenched in a defensive stance as they navigate the unpredictable, cascading effects of wartime inflation.

The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England all echoed a remarkably similar, cautious sentiment: broader economic growth is being severely hindered by energy prices aggressively surging to four-year highs (Brent just reached 2022 highs at around $120, but is now correcting aggressively).

You can access the European Central Bank remarks here.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey bluntly highlighted this structural dilemma today, explicitly stating that traditional monetary policy tools simply cannot stop the direct, supply-side inflationary shock caused by soaring energy prices.

You can access the latest Bank of England remarks right here.

Similarly, ECB President Christine Lagarde maintained a heavily guarded tone during her press conference, acknowledging the immense pressure that triple-digit oil and logistical constraints are placing on the fragile Eurozone recovery.

You can access the European Central Bank remarks here.

While these central bankers firmly noted that they would be forced to make policy adjustments if long-term inflation expectations begin to aggressively decouple from their rigid 2% targets, they mostly avoided offering any concrete hints or definitive timelines for future rate hikes.

So FX traders should all keep a close eye on Inflation expectations for coming times.

Against this backdrop of coordinated institutional hesitation, the FX market is experiencing a newfound momentum, particularly if you add to it the return of some interventions, like the one seen on the Japanese Yen this morning.

The US Dollar is slowly decoupling from Crude Oil, following yesterday’s FOMC press conference.

With traders not seeing the hawkish turn expected from Powell on his ultimate press conference, the greenback has failed to follow the momentum, tumbling lower across the board and breathing fresh life into European currencies.

Let’s dive into the intraday technical overview for EUR/USD and GBP/USD to see if they can capitalize on this newfound Dollar weakness.

Discover:

• Bitcoin’s (BTC/USD) Price Outlook: Struggling against resistance in a high-stakes consolidation phase
• USD/JPY (update): “Final warning” verbal intervention spooked the market. What are the next key supports to watch?
• The FOMC is stuck & Powell remains at the Board of Governors – North American Mid-Week Market Update

GBP/USD has been hanging in a consolidation range between 1.3450 and 1.36 in the last two weeks and immediate Dollar weakness will look to break the upward resistance.

With three strong bullish candles, the action passed back above the 1.35 50-period MA and is progressively extending.

• Range traders will want to defend the pair around 1.36 as it gets there, and if Oil remains above $100 for long, it has potential to maintain its consolidation
• However, breakout traders will push current momentum for strong odds of a breakout

Keep a close eye on the 1.3550 to 1.36 resistance zone as the price action reaches there.

Levels of interest for GBP/USD:

Resistance Levels

• 1.3550 to 1.36 Resistance Zone (range highs)
• April Highs 1.36014 (breakout above)
• Next key Resistance 1.37 zone
• 2025 Resistance around 1.38

Support Levels

• Key Pivot 1.3420 to 1.3440 (range lows)
• Pivotal Support 1.3250 – 1.33
• 1.32 War Support

EUR/USD was also consolidating in a more directional price action, but has found its bottom after yesterday’s FOMC meeting.

With the pair reaching its 4H 50-period MA (1.17185), Euro bulls will want to see a clear push to confirm higher odds of a break to the upside – particularly with the recent bull candles that are still printing.

Evolving in a short-term bear channel, make sure to see a clean break above 1.1725 to confirm. Failing to do so should maintain the bearish price action.

Levels to place on your EUR/USD charts:

Resistance Levels

• 4H 50-period MA (1.17185)
• 1.17 to 1.1720 March Pivot
• Resistance Zone around 1.18 (+/- 150 pips)
• 1.1830 June 2025 highs
• 1.1850 to 1.1860 War highs

Support Levels

• Pivotal Support 1.1635 – 1.1635
• 1.1636 4H 200-period MA
• 1.1540 to 1.1570 War Support
• 1.1475 to 1.15 November Support
• War lows 1.1410

Safe Trades and keep an eye on US-Iran talks!

Follow Elior on Twitter/X for Additional Market News, interactions and Insights @EliorManier

Opinions are the authors’; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please refer to the MarketPulse Terms of Use.
Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets.
© 2026 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.