Crash predictions have become a near-constant presence in housing market coverage. Between rising foreclosure filings and climbing delinquencies on certain loan types, the headlines have given many homeowners the sense that a serious downturn is close at hand.
The data, however, does not line up neatly with that fear. Mortgage delinquency rates remain below their long-run average, and the kind of forced selling that defined the last housing collapse in 2008 has not materialized. That does not mean the picture is entirely clean, and the same risk report that pushes back on crash fears also points to a specific corner of the market where pressure is genuinely building.
In the May 2026 edition of the BiggerPockets Real Estate Podcast monthly housing market update, chief investment officer Dave Meyer dedicated his recurring risk report to the crash question and addressed it directly.
“For a crash to happen, what needs to happen is people start panic selling or are forced to sell through foreclosures or something like that,” Meyer said. “That is not happening.”
What data says about potential housing market crash
Meyer’s central argument is that the crash narrative circulating in the media is not supported by the underlying data. He pointed specifically to the popular claim that a flood of new listings is about to break the market.
“I know that this narrative in the media is like, ‘There’s so many more homes for sale. Inventory is going through the roof. There’s going to be a crash.’ Not really. That is not what the data actually says,” Meyer said.
The clearest evidence, in Meyer’s view, sits in mortgage delinquency data. Citing figures from analytics the Intercontinental Exchange published, he noted the national delinquency rate stands at 3.72%, while the long-run average dating back to 2000 is 4.54%. That leaves the current rate roughly 80 basis points below its historical norm. Delinquencies have been rising, but Meyer framed that movement as a return toward normal rather than a warning sign.
“Although we are going up, the data right now suggests we are doing more of what is called like a reversion to the mean,” Meyer said. “We’re getting closer to the long-term average.”
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To underline the difference between current conditions and a genuine collapse, Meyer compared the pace of today’s increase with the run-up to the 2008 crash.
“In 2006, 2007 it literally went from 4% to 11% in like 2 or 3 years,” Meyer said. “That’s skyrocketing. We have seen it move from about 3% to 3.7% in four years. Totally different scale of what we are talking about.”
Taken together, those data points inform Meyer’s overall estimate. He placed the probability of a crash at 10% to 15%, up slightly from the roughly 10% he projected at the start of the year, but still well short of what he would consider a likely outcome.
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Housing market crash warning signs
Meyer’s pushback on crash fears came with a clear exception. While the broader delinquency picture looks stable, he singled out FHA loans as the one area where the data genuinely concerns him. Delinquencies on those loans have climbed from under 4% to roughly 6%, and Meyer was candid about how quickly that shift has happened.
“It’s going up fast. I don’t want to sugarcoat this,” Meyer said. “I just want to be honest with you, we’re seeing that delinquency rate go up a lot.”
The borrowers most exposed, in Meyer’s assessment, are those who took out FHA loans from 2022 onward. Because FHA loans allow down payments as low as 3.5%, he noted that some of those buyers have little equity cushion, and in parts of the country where prices have softened, a share of them could now owe more than their homes are worth.
Foreclosure activity is also climbing. Meyer cited data showing foreclosures up 6% from the previous quarter and 26% compared with a year earlier. He acknowledged those figures sound alarming, but pointed out that foreclosure levels remain below where they stood before the pandemic.
Even on the FHA concern, Meyer was careful to frame the scale of the risk. FHA loans account for only about 10% to 11% of the total mortgage market, which limits how far the damage can spread.
“Is it going to cause a cascading effect throughout the market? Probably not,” Meyer said. “At least the evidence for that right now, very low.”
What would change his assessment, Meyer said, is a meaningful acceleration in foreclosure activity or a rise in unemployment. Absent those developments, he maintains that the data still supports his measured read of the market, with the warning signs worth monitoring rather than treating as evidence a crash is approaching.
Key takeaways on housing market crash fears
- Meyer’s bottom line on a crash: He puts the probability at 10% to 15%, up slightly from the roughly 10% he projected at the start of the year, and does not consider a crash imminent or likely based on current data.
- Why the data does not point to a crash: A crash requires panic selling or a wave of forced foreclosure sales, and Meyer said neither is happening. The national mortgage delinquency rate of 3.72% remains below the long-run average of 4.54%, according to figures from analytics firm ICE that Meyer cited.
- The scale is nothing like 2006: Meyer noted that delinquencies surged from 4% to 11% within two to three years heading into the last crash, compared with a move from roughly 3% to 3.7% over the past four years.
- The real risk Meyer flagged is in FHA loans: Delinquencies on FHA loans have climbed from under 4% to roughly 6%, with borrowers who bought from 2022 onward, often with down payments as low as 3.5%, the most exposed.
- What Meyer is watching next: A faster rise in foreclosures or an increase in unemployment would raise his concern, but FHA loans account for only about 10% to 11% of the total mortgage market, which limits the risk of a broader cascade.
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