The Canadian Dollar loves conflict – Has the CAD reached a long-term bottom?

The Canadian Dollar had been a victim of a rough stretch since the beginning of Trump’s second term.

Isolated by its historic neighbor amid US First policies, the Canadian Economy had been taking a sustained hit, leading to an accelerated cooling. The Land of Maple Syrup is known to be highly cyclical. Structurally, it tends to be dependent on commodity prices, global trade, and particularly on the US, which harshly pumped the brakes.

This phenomenon got accelerated by the historic Canadian mortgage structure: Variable loans are particularly affected when rates rise, compared to the typical 30-year fixed rates offered in the US.

Hence, after the 2 years of ultra-low rates during COVID policies, the Bank of Canada hikes sent the hypersonic economy into a rock-hard wall.

Add to this a general productivity restructuring, as massive waves of immigration saw another brutal stop; business confidence and investment stalled suddenly over the past few years – this shows up particularly in GDP per capita in Canada, which has remained broadly unchanged since 2012.

But there is light at the end of the tunnel. After years of questioning within Canada’s natural Liberal party, Justin Trudeau stepped aside for Mark Carney, who has since cast doubt on some political issues.

Since his ascension to power in March 2025, Carney and his party have brought three Conservatives into their ranks. Conservatives are going through their own crisis with internal trouble and separatist causes in Alberta. The Liberal Party is now three seats away from a majority in the House of Commons.

But that’s just politics. Even if the Canadian economy remains deeply strained from the latest rounds of US Policies, Carney has begun a new wave of international trade deals with India, China, and Europe – The rise of the “Middle power”.

Canada’s manoeuvre options were thin, with the trilateral USMCA deal in limbo, but its capacities are slowly increasing.

What is of traders’ interest is how all of this relates to the Loonie.

After reaching 16-year lows against the Euro, 22-year troughs against the USD, and a new nadir against the Swiss Franc, the Canadian Dollar is forging a sharp turn, supported by higher petroleum and gold prices.

While its economy remains crippled by structural factors, Markets are forward-looking, and traders should do the same, so let’s ask a simple question.

Have we seen a long-term bottom in the Canadian Dollar?

Let’s dive into the weekly charts for USD/CAD, CAD/CHF, and EUR/CAD to see if we can get some clues from higher-timeframe technical analysis.

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USD/CAD has now officially broken its 2021 long-term uptrend – But such rarely signify immediate U-turns.

The Major North American pair is currently ranging between 1.35 and 1.38, stabilized by its 200-Week Moving Average (1.36378).

The consolidation isn’t looking to be break on the immediate outlook, but keep these two breakout zones in mind:

• Breaking and closing on the week below 1.35 would hint at further downside in the pair.
• Rebounding a closing above its 50-Week MA (1.3830) could lead to a retest of 1.40 (lower odds)

Explore our shorter timeframe analysis for USD/CAD right here.

USD/CAD Higher timeframe levels

Resistance Levels:

• 1.38 Major Daily Resistance & 50-Week MA (1.3830)
• 2026 highs 1.39288
• November 2025 Peak 1.40 to 1.4150
• December 2024 Consolidation 1.44 to 1.45

Support Levels:

• 200-Week MA 1.36378
• 2025 lows Support 1.35 to 1.36 (bearish below)
• September 2024 lows 1.34420
• 1.32 to 1.33 July 2023 Next Support

The Canadian Dollar has lost more than 25% of its value against the CHF since 2022 – But this trend looks to be reverting.

Contrarily to the more rangebound USD/CAD, momentum is taking a significant shift towards a rebounding trend after a weekly double-bottom and supported by a weekly bullish divergence.

The 50-Week MA will be the upcoming target for bulls who are attempting to grab control – Closing above it may easily relaunch the pair towards 0.60.

CAD/CHF Higher timeframe levels

Resistance Levels:

• Major Momentum Pivot 0.57 to 0.58 (50-Week MA 0.58133)
• 0.59 mini-resistance
• Next Key Resistance 0.60 to 0.6050
• 2024 Base Resistance 0.62 to 0.6270
• 2024 Major Resistance 0.64 to 0.64750 (200-Week MA)

Support Levels:

• All-Time Lows Support 0.56
• 0.56013 All-Time Lows
• Next Psychological Support 0.55

EUR/CAD is also seeing a significant shift in its trend throughout this week’s break lower.

Now falling below its 50-Week Moving Average and crossing back below the significant 1.60 psychological level, sellers should remain in control all the way towards the 1.57 – 1.58 Major Support.

• Mean reversion there could assist a re-entry for further downside, particularly if prices retake the 1.59 level.
• Watch for selling acceleration on a weekly close below 1.57.

EUR/CAD Higher timeframe levels

Resistance Levels:

• 2020 Resistance Zone – 1.59 to 1.60
• 50-Week MA 1.6020
• Major Resistance at 2018 Highs – 1.61 to 1.6150
• Major Resistance at 2018 Highs – 1.63 to 1.64
• 16-Year high 1.64703

Support Levels:

• Upcoming support 1.57 to 1.58 Zone
• March 2025 Support Zone 1.5475 to 1.55
• Pre-Breakout Support 1.5150 to 1.52
• 2024 Major Support 1.46 to 1.4750

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