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SIMON BROWN: I’m chatting with Ayesha Hatea. She is senior director of research and consulting at TransUnion Africa. Ayesha, appreciate the time. Your TransUnion Q4 2025 Mobility Insights Report is out. Part of the big story, perhaps, is it really was a very good year for new vehicle sales – a new best in a decade or more.
AYESHA HATEA: Correct. In 2025 we sold 422 103 units, which is an almost 20% increase compared to 2024. In quarter four alone there was a 15% year-on-year increase. So it has marked the strongest quarterly volume since the post-pandemic recovery began, and we’re going back to at least 2014 before we saw these numbers.
SIMON BROWN: Oh, wow. Okay. Proper numbers here. What’s driving it? I want to delve into what people are buying and the like. But one of the issues, I suppose, is that perhaps we have kept our cars longer and, of course, just lower interest rates must be helping.
AYESHA HATEA: Definitely. They all play a role in what’s affecting customers’ wallets and their pockets – and affordability in general. We’re also seeing imported Chinese vehicles coming in at much lower prices, and we’re seeing the demand for those vehicles growing. Almost one in every five vehicles now is a Chinese vehicle being sold in South Africa. So South Africans are leveraging that affordability space.
They are also thinking about how they’re structuring the deals and the types of vehicles they are buying. We saw some interesting numbers around the used and new ratio coming down, which means customers are buying more new cars than used cars. It’s quite interesting if you’re thinking about the psyche of the consumer, who is thinking I’d rather spend a little bit more, buy a new car, and I’ll get a service plan, I’ll have a warranty – which takes away some of the risk we would have if we bought a used car.
And when it comes to their actual pockets they’re thinking, how do we fund these new cars? We are also seeing that from a financing perspective the ratio is moving. So people are financing the new cars over the used cars.
But quite interestingly on the finance side as well, we see that they are extending the loan [periods]. So we’re seeing that about 56% of all loans are now more than 72 months in term. So from a consumer perspective the monthly instalment doesn’t change whether they are buying a used or a new, but they have the opportunity to extend the term.
So buyers are playing around with a couple of factors and, again, the affordability of the vehicle price is helping them as well.
SIMON BROWN: That affordability is the big shift. My sister just bought a car. She got a brand new one out of the box. She happened to buy a Japanese car – but it’s the same. She could get a brand new car right now – of course, different models and everything. But they really are competing strongly on I was going to say price, but it’s more than price. It’s value. It’s bells and whistles, its airbags and screens and a car plan and everything.
AYESHA HATEA: Correct. It’s not just about affordability. Consumers are seeing value in these models. Cars are coming with more than the basics. As I said earlier on, just having the service plan, the warranties that [dealers] offer, gives consumers the peace of mind that our consumers are treasuring right now.
SIMON BROWN: Is this very generational – in other words, the younger folks sort of going more for the Chinese, and maybe the older generation still looking at some of those, I’m thinking, top-end luxury? ‘Luxury’ might be in inverted commas, but are we seeing a generational difference?
AYESHA HATEA: With intergenerational our data does tell us in terms of preferences the Gen Xs and Baby Boomers do seem to be more loyal to brands, whereas the Gen Zs and Millennials are after value. They’re after value, they’re after the best bang for their buck.
If we’re looking about intent within the market, the purchasing behaviour across the different age groups, again our Gen Zs and Millennials are showing stronger intent to enter the market and purchase these vehicles, where our Gen Xs and Baby Boomers are slightly more conservative with taking on that additional asset or taking on that additional debt that comes with the asset. So we definitely see that differentiation within the generations.
SIMON BROWN: My sense is this really is a fundamental shift. This isn’t something which is suddenly like when some cheap Chinese or Asian cars arrived on the scene. This really is that our motor industry broadly – as to what we’re going to be seeing on our roads – has changed and is changing and, never say never, is probably not going back to what it used to be in many ways.
AYESHA HATEA: Correct. I don’t think it will go back. I think it is still changing. I think there’s still a lot more influence coming into the market. There’ll be more brands entering the market. The competitive landscape is completely changing, but the buyer mindset is also changing. And so it’s understanding this equilibrium driven by affordability, which is also being shaped by the interest rates and the value brand disruption.
But we also need to understand the long-term impact of that because, as we spoke about the terms getting extended, the risk is almost moving forward. And so it’s really important for lenders to be aware of those dynamics as well when it comes to extending those loan terms, and for consumers also to understand what that actually means for the lifetime value of the vehicles.
SIMON BROWN: Yes, that’s a great point. What about new-energy vehicles, the hybrids or maybe fully electric? I see a few of them on the roads. I see a few of them charging at the shopping centre parking lots and the like, but to my sense it’s still quite a small part of the market.
AYESHA HATEA: It is quite small, but it is growing. It’s still quite pragmatic. About 4% of our total sales came from new-energy vehicles. We’re seeing a stronger demand for the hybrids, the plug-ins. And I think that comes with what we call ‘range anxiety’. I think people still have that a bit, and as we are building up that infrastructure, hopefully that sort of anxiety will start to lessen. But ultimately it’s still quite small.
I think people like the idea of it. They’re buying into the idea of being more efficient and being more sort of green. But ultimately, without the correct infrastructure, we’re still going to have that range anxiety.
SIMON BROWN: And that infrastructure is significant. It’s more than just putting someone on the N1 and the N3 so that if I take a trip to Durban or Cape Town, I can charge en route. I live in an apartment complex, and I simply can’t charge. There’s a lot to it, rather than just a few charging stations at shopping malls and on freeways.
AYESHA HATEA: Correct, you are seeing certain dealers also supporting that. That means they’re creating portable packs, for example, and they’re also building in that infrastructure along the routes. We will get there, but I do believe it will take some time.
SIMON BROWN: To be fair, when they first came out in the US and Europe, it was the same process – very slow at first.
We’ll leave it there. Ayesha Hatea, senior director of research consulting, TransUnion Africa, always appreciate the time.
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