Trump had already criticized Iran on Thursday for failing to allow oil shipments to move freely through the strait and warned Tehran against imposing fees on tankers. Even so, he has continued to express cautious optimism about a possible agreement, describing Iran’s leaders in an NBC News interview as more reasonable in private than their public statements suggest.
Iran signals conditions for diplomacy
Iran, however, has made clear that it is entering the talks with its own demands. Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf said that a ceasefire in Lebanon must be in place before negotiations can begin. He also called for the release of Iran’s blocked assets, though he did not provide further details.
An Iranian delegation was expected to arrive in Islamabad on Friday night, according to officials in Pakistan’s capital. Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi were set to lead the delegation. On the US side, Vice President JD Vance, who is heading the American team, said before departing for Pakistan that Trump had issued “clear guidelines” for the talks. Vance also warned Tehran not to underestimate Washington or attempt to manipulate the process.
Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, added another layer of uncertainty by stating on Telegram that Iran would bring the management of the Strait of Hormuz “to a new stage.” It remained unclear whether that meant Iran would renew earlier demands to retain greater control over the waterway, a position the United States has previously rejected. Khamenei also repeated Iran’s call for war reparations, a demand that is widely expected to be unacceptable to US negotiators.
Fighting in Lebanon threatens to complicate peace efforts
At the same time, continued violence in Lebanon threatens to undermine the diplomatic opening between Washington and Tehran. Israel continued striking towns in southern Lebanon, though on a smaller scale than the major operation earlier in the week that reportedly killed more than 200 people. Hezbollah responded with drones and rocket attacks toward Israel, where medics said several people were injured in central and southern areas.
Trump said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had agreed to keep operations in Lebanon “low-key” after the two leaders spoke by phone on Wednesday. Still, Netanyahu has maintained that the ongoing fighting in Lebanon is separate from the US-Iran ceasefire arrangement. He also said Israel would open direct talks with Lebanon on disarming Hezbollah and ending the conflict, with the United States expected to host a meeting next week, according to a State Department official.
Despite these diplomatic gestures, Hezbollah has shown no sign of retreat. Secretary-General Naim Qasem declared that the group’s “resistance will continue until its last breath,” signaling that the Lebanese front could remain active even if US-Iran talks make progress.
Human and economic costs continue to mount
The broader war in the Middle East has inflicted heavy human and economic losses over the past six weeks. Thousands have been killed, and critical energy infrastructure across the Persian Gulf has been damaged. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has further strained global fuel supplies and deepened uncertainty in energy markets.
According to figures cited in the report, more than 5,500 people have died across the region. More than 3,600 deaths have been estimated in Iran, while Lebanon has reported over 1,700 fatalities. Israel says it has killed more than 1,400 Hezbollah militants, including 200 in a single day on Wednesday. Israel itself has reported around three dozen deaths, with a similar number recorded across Gulf Arab states. Iraq has also suffered dozens of casualties, and US Central Command says 13 American troops have been killed.
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