Warren Buffett owns American Express as one of Berkshire Hathaway’s largest positions, and he’s held it for decades.
In fact, the Oracle of Omahaearns over $575 million in annual dividends from American Express (AXP) stock.
With Q1 2026 earnings due April 23, investors are watching the bank stock closely. The question on everyone’s mind: Will recent changes to its popular Platinum Card help AXP beat Wall Street’s estimates, allowing management to once again increase its dividend payout?
AXP dividend key ratios at a glance
Dividends matter more to investors than people often realize, something that isn’t lost on Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway owns 22% of American Express stock, making him the single largest shareholder by far.
Vanguard’s portfolio managerSharon Hill put it plainly:
“Whether an investor needs income and/or simply values the attributes of higher-dividend-paying companies, an active fund that seeks high-quality companies with stable dividend yields may be suitable.”
American Express has become exactly that kind of company over the past several years.
For income-focused investors, here’s where American Express stands as a dividend stock right now:
- Annual dividend per share: $3.80 (forward) / $3.28 (trailing)
- Quarterly dividend: $0.95 per share (effective 2026, a 16% increase)
- Dividend yield: approximately 1.2%
- Annual dividend expense (NTM): $2.60 billion
- Free cash flow (2026E): $11.87 billion
- Payout ratio: approximately 22%
- 5-year dividend growth rate: ~17% annually
- Dividend frequency: quarterly
The yield is modest, but the growth rate is exceptional. A 17% annual dividend growth rate, compounded over five years, is rare in financial services, a cyclical sector.
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And with a payout ratio around 22%, there’s plenty of room for continued increases.
In the Q4 earnings call, CEO Stephen Squeri said the company plans to grow its dividend in line with EPS, targeting a 20%–25% payout ratio. Notably, the dividend has increased from $1.72 per share in 2021.
AXP’s premium strategy boosts dividend payout
Founded in 1850 and headquartered in New York, American Express operates a closed-loop payments network, serving as both the card issuer and the merchant acquirer.
That gives it an edge most competitors can’t replicate.
The business is split into four segments: U.S. Consumer Services, Commercial Services, International Card Services, and Global Merchant and Network Services.
In 2025:
- AXP reported record revenue of $72 billion, up 15% year over year.
- Earnings per sharestood at $15.38, up 15% YoY.
- Card revenuesurpassed $10 billion for the first time, up 18% YoY.
Chief Financial Officer Christophe Le Caillec described the credit picture bluntly on the Q4 2025 earnings call:
“The delinquency rate of American Express over the last two years, eight quarters, was like 1.37% of the eight quarters. And the eighth quarter, when it was not 1.3%, it was 1.2%.”
That kind of stability is the result of a deliberate push toward premium card members—people who spend more, willingly pay fees, and rarely default.
A widening base of premium members allows the financial services giant to generate steady cash flows across market cycles and to continue paying dividends to shareholders.
What analysts expect from AXP stock in Q1?
Wall Street analysts predict AXP will post quarterly earnings of $3.99 per share for Q1, reflecting a 9.6% increase from the same period last year. Revenue is forecast at $18.61 billion, representing a 9.7% year-over-year increase.
In the five quarters leading up to Q4, AXP beat revenue estimates every single time. It missed slightly on EPS in Q4, with earnings of $3.53 per share versus an estimate of $3.55 per share.
That’s a very thin miss, and, notably, the stock barely moved on earnings day, up 0.19%.
Noam Galai/ Getty Images
CNBC’s Jim Cramer offered a telling observation ahead of this earnings cycle:
“American Express almost always seems to retreat when we see the numbers and then runs a couple of days later.”
He also highlighted AXP’s wealthy customer base as a durable edge, noting that demand for premium products can stay strong even if the broader economy slows.
Analyst consensus for AXP stock currently leans toward “Moderate Buy”, with a mean price target of $352.60, representing approximately 6.9% potential upside from recent levels.
The big Q1 catalyst will be the Platinum Card refresh. American Express launched the new U.S. Consumer and Small Business Platinum Cards in mid-September 2025 and new applicants moved to the higher price point immediately.
The existing cardholder base, the “back book”, began repricing in January 2026. Since the annual fee is amortized over 12 months, the full financial impact builds throughout the year, peaking in Q4 when the entire portfolio will be on the new fee.
Related: American Express is about to retire this controversial card benefit, transfer partner
Travel bookings through the Amex app were up 30% in Q4, while spending at Resy restaurants by U.S. consumers rose 20%. Platinum Card retention rates after the fee increase for the consumer card stood at a robust 99%.
What next for the Warren Buffett stock?
Wells Fargo set the highest current price target for AXP at $415, which was issued on April 9, 2026. That’s meaningful backing from a major bank just ahead of earnings.
The combination of Platinum Card momentum, a resilient premium consumer base, mid-teens EPS growth guidance of $17.30–$17.90 for 2026, and a rapidly growing dividend makes a compelling case.
AXP isn’t the highest-yielding dividend stock on the market. But for investors who care about dividend growth, credit quality, and a business model built to endure, it’s hard to argue with Buffett’s logic.
Q1 earnings on April 23 will give the market its first real look at how the Platinum refresh is translating into revenue.
Given the beat history and the tailwinds in play, the odds look favorable.
Related: Down 23%, is this Warren Buffett dividend stock undervalued?
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